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Tonight we have a very interesting game between two teams playing their best basketball of the season when the Atlanta Hawks travel north to take on the Toronto Raptors. Both teams started off the season poorly but have bounced back recently to at least have a shot at making the playoffs. Let’s look into the numbers at the NBA odds to see if we can find value here and cash another ticket.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors
Friday, February 4, 2022 – 7:30 PM EST at Scotiabank Arena
Raptors Playing Much Better Basketball
The Toronto Raptors, like many teams, had a ton of injury issues mixed with health and safety protocol concerns that led to the absence of their best players. The way this team is currently constructed was always going to be a problem.
The current core of the Raptors were role players on a championship team and there was always going to be a level of uncertainty coming into this season. Now that most of their roster is healthy, those former role players have been able to blossom into leading men.
We have to start with Fred VanVleet who was recently named to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. To put into perspective how monumental of an achievement that is, he is only the 5th player in the 75-year history of the league to accomplish that feat. Pair that with former All-Star Pascal Siakam's re-emergence and you have a Raptors team that is now 27-23 after starting the year at 14-17.
Tonight they host an Atlanta Hawks team that is not having a good season but is starting to figure things out. Toronto is -2 favorites at home after the line opened at -1.5 at most of the top online sportsbooks.
That line feels slightly disrespectful to the Raptors considering how well they've played in 2022. It is also an indication that oddsmakers are showing this Atlanta team a lot of respect for their recent run of form.
Total Has a Lot of Value in This Spot
Both teams are on the second night of a back to back with although Toronto did not have to travel. While the trip from Atlanta to Toronto is a few hours, one thing that helps Atlanta, at least in theory when it comes to the rest, is that the Raptors' game last night went into overtime.
Four of the Raptors' five starters played over 40 minutes last night. The total for this game is 219 and my official play will be on the over in this spot. The Hawks are a terrible defensive team, allowing opponents to score 111.3 points per game.
When you look at their splits, their defense is actually slightly better on no rest but I think this specific situation is different. First of all, you have to factor in the long trip which includes going through customs.
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On top of that, the Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season with everyone clicking. The Raptors are third in the league in fast-break points per game despite playing at the 3rd slowest pace in the league.
What that tells me is they know when to run and who to do it against. The Hawks defense is the principal reason they find themselves one game under .500 (25-26) and I think it lets them down again tonight.
The final reason that my official play is over 219 (-110) according to Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) is the Hawks are ranked 2nd in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. While most casual fans still think of Toronto as a defensive team, that is no longer statistically accurate.
They are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency (17th) and I think Trae Young and company can score enough points to help carry this number over the total.
NBA Pick: Over 219 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.