Free NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for October 22 (Archive)
After a slow night yesterday, the NBA is back with a full slate tonight. We’ve got our eye on the game in Boston where the Celtics host the Toronto Raptors. While this was a bit of a rivalry in the last couple of years, this is a very different Toronto team. So is Boston with a new head coach so let’s break this game down to see where the value is.
Read on to take a look at the NBA pick and the best sportsbook to bet with today.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
Friday, October 22, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at TD Garden
Celtics Look To Start of New Era With Home Win
Opening night in the NBA was a lot of fun, in large part thanks to the Celtics and Knicks. Boston will be disappointed with the outcome but it is something to build on. The truth is, that was a difficult spot with Madison Square Garden in playoff mode already.
Tonight they will be playing at the TD Garden Arena in front of their loyal fan base. I expect a huge bounce back from Boston, especially Jason Tatum.
Even though he made some clutch shots down the stretch, overall Tatum was awful against the Knicks. If he would have played even below average by his standards, Boston wins that game easily.
Instead, he missed 23 of the 30 shots he took to finish 23% from the field. That included 2 for 15 from three which is a problem with Tatum. Not his three-point shooting, his shot selection.
He is easily one of the best players in the league, especially on offense. That said, he settles far too often for the easy shot which lets the defense off the hook.
Tonight his team came into this game as -6.5 point favorites according to the BMR’s NBA odds page. My pick for this game is actually in the first half where the Celtics are -3.5 point favorites.
I think they ride the momentum of their crowd to cover that spread. It’s obviously not as easy as that and I will get to the reasons I am fading the Raptors in this spot.
Raptors Are Offensively Challenged
The Raptors seem committed to playing small ball this season which makes sense considering the makeup of their roster. That doesn’t mean it will be successful though and their first game of the season was not exactly encouraging.
They scored 83 points in part due to the fact that Fred Van Vleet and OG Anunoby combined to shoot 8 for 37 from the field. In fact, not a single starter shot over 50% which is how they managed to finish with a ridiculously low 31% field goal percentage.
The Washington Wizards aren’t exactly known as defensive stoppers so we’ll chalk it up to an off night with some early season rust. The reason I am fading them here in Boston is the fact that the Celtics lost a game they should have won.
I love the Celtics without the motivation but in this specific situation, at home, off a tough loss against a division opponent. This is clearly a Celtics spot and I’m riding that wave with my first half play.
In terms of X’s and O’s, Van Vleet will be matched up with Marcus Smart which won’t be fun for him. Also, Anunoby is going to have to guard either Tatum or Jaylen Brown, and either way, he will be expending a ton of energy on defense.
Toronto also does not have a starting-caliber big man on their roster and while Robert Williams isn’t an offensive force, his athleticism could be a problem for the Raptors.
My last point is this; if the Celtics go small ball to match the Raptors, their lineup is way more talented and versatile so I don’t see any way the Raptors have an advantage in this spot.
NBA Pick: Celtics -3.5 in the First Half (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.