After moving up to No. 2 in the latest rankings, the Purdue Boilermakers begin a tough stretch on the college basketball betting schedule with a matchup with the Florida State Seminoles in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Where’s the value in this game? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds.
Tuesday, November 30, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Mackey Arena
Florida State entered the season among the top 25 in the preseason rankings, and the Seminoles were picked to be Duke’s stiffest challengers in the ACC. Leonard Hamilton’s crew stumbled in an early rivalry clash with Florida, and could really use a boost with a big takedown in this matchup. Matt Painter brought Purdue into the season as a co-favorite with Michigan in the Big Ten, and the Boilermakers have certainly lived up to those expectations in the early going.
The Big Ten came out on the good side of both NCAAB scores in the Monday challenge games, Iowa scoring a very mild upset at Virginia and Illinois beating Notre Dame by 10 at home. The last two events have been won by the Big Ten.
Purdue is a strong favorite according to top sportsbooks to give the Big Ten a third win in this year’s challenge. The Boilermakers are being offered on a -11 spread against the Seminoles, and a 143-point total favors the ‘under’ at some shops.
All four of the previous meetings between the programs have been won by Florida State, two of those wins coming in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
The most recent matchup took place in Florida in the finals of the 2019 Emerald Coast Classic, and the matchup became an instant classic as the Seminoles claimed a 63-60 overtime decision. Florida State was favored by a point, and the final stayed ‘under’ a 124½-point total despite the extra period.
Florida State needed a late bucket to thwart Purdue’s late rally in the 2018 interconference event, the Seminoles taking a 73-72 triumph. The Seminoles scored an easy 97-57 rout in the 2005 ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a swarming defense behind that laugher. Florida State is 10-12 in the event over the years while the Boilermakers check in with an 11-9 mark against ACC foes in the annual showdown.
It’s not just the loss at Florida in the second game of the season that has caused the Seminoles to completely disappear from the radar screens belonging to AP voters. It was a close call in a win over Tulane immediately following the loss to the Gators, and then they went to overtime on Thanksgiving Eve to just nip Boston University that has Florida State in an early pickle.
Florida State was anointed 19-point chalk at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) in the match with the Terriers and blew an 8-point lead in the closing minutes. The Seminoles then needed a late basket in overtime to keep from losing the contest outright. If nothing else, they set a new NCAA record with the victory marking their 12th overtime win in a row.
Known for going deep into the bench with his rotation to keep fresh bodies on the floor in a pressing defense, Hamilton has been forced to scale back a bit on that so far this season as he tries to bring together many new faces. The Seminoles would love to get more production from their three seven-footers (Tanor Ngom, Naheem McLeod and John Butler), but that hasn’t happened yet to force Florida State had to play a little smaller in a few games.
Painter is probably glad his Boilermakers weren’t elevated to No. 1 this week, even though they’ve sure played like the best team in the country. The one luxury Painter has over Hamilton is not having the need to teach his system to newcomers since all five starters returned for Purdue.
The team’s familiarity with one another has certainly shown on the offensive end of the floor where the Boilermakers rank second in scoring, third in overall shooting and fifth in hitting bombs from three-point range.
That stability showed in the wins over ranked North Carolina and Villanova teams, Purdue sinking 10-of-23 from behind the arc in both games. All systems were go in last Friday’s rout of Omaha, and the Mavericks received no mercy from the Boilermakers in a 97-40 final.
Will Purdue feel a bit slighted about not being No. 1 and take it out on Florida State? Or will the Seminoles rise to the occasion and at least keep it closer against the high-scoring Boilermakers? I’m inclined to believe the latter with my free college basketball pick.
NCAAB Pick: Florida State +11 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.