Florida hopes to continue its strong history against the Wildcats by beating them on Saturday. Can Florida also cover the spread?
The Top Sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for Saturday’s contest between Florida and Kentucky. After bouncing back with a blowout victory over Tennessee, the Gators are 3-1 and ranked 10th in the nation. While Kentucky is undefeated, the Gators will easily form its toughest test so far.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.
Saturday, October 02, 2021 – 06:00 PM EDT at Kroger Field
The most important component of this game will be Kentucky’s run defense. Florida loves to run the ball: one statistic that indicates its dependence on running the ball is that it ranks 28th nationally in run-play percentage.
Kentucky might seem like a strong play because of its run defense statistics. Wildcat backers will certainly point to the fact that Kentucky ranks sixth nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
Because run defense will be so important for Kentucky on Saturday -- given the Gators’ proclivity to run the ball -- the Wildcats’ run defense statistics warrant closer investigation in order to assess whether they help justify a play on the Wildcats.
Know for your college football picks that, especially at this time of year, statistics can be incredibly misleading. Obviously, season-long statistics reflect a team or player’s season-long performance. At this stage of the season, however, teams will have played some non-conference games, many of which feature some utterly weak opponents.
In the Wildcats’ case, they have played four games so far. Those games include one against UL Monroe, a team bad enough to only beat Jackson State by five points.
Another Wildcat opponent was another small, low-profile program, Chattanooga. They did play two SEC schools, but neither one is worth being impressed about. Those two SEC and Power 5 opponents were Missouri and South Carolina.
Missouri ranks 77th in rush yards per game despite getting to beat up Southeastern Missouri State. South Carolina, meanwhile, ranks 113th in the same category. So, know for your sports betting that Kentucky’s run defense stats are meaningless because they form a product of an extremely generous schedule so far.
Because the Wildcat rush defense stats are not something we should attach value to, we should shift our attention to last year and this offseason. In other words, because Florida is a newly strong opponent for Kentucky, we should assess the Wildcat run defense somewhat as if it were a season opener.
Last year, Kentucky ranked sixth in the SEC in opposing rushing yardage despite having well-respected future NFL prospects like DeAndre Square and Josh Paschal in the front seven.
Kentucky’s big loss this offseason was linebacker Jamin Davis, who played a significant role in any success that the Wildcat run defense had. For that reason, he was selected 19th in the first round of this most recent NFL Daft.
Without Davis, the Wildcats pinned a lot of hopes on the transfer portal because they needed bodies, especially in their linebacking group where the depth has looked very bleak.
They’ve also tried to rely on significant levels of youth. For example, they had hope in guys like Jared Casey, a linebacker who they snagged from the Oregon Ducks.
But these young players simply aren’t making an instant impact for the UK and this lack of instant impact or instant growth will continue as they progress through the SEC gauntlet. The lack of depth especially at linebacker has created awkward conundrums, planning-wise, for the defense.
One solution was going to be to start Vito Tisdale, a natural safety, at strongside linebacker. Tisdale, however, hasn’t played a snap this year because he is having legal issues related to a burglary.
To account for these personnel issues in the linebacking unit, the Wildcats are employing packages that respect their relative strength in the secondary. A smaller Wildcat group lacking substantial meat in the front seven will try to navigate some of the toughest rush attacks in the SEC and in the nation.
The toughness of Florida’s rush attack is difficult to understate. Currently, the Gators rank third nationally in amassing 323 rushing yards per game. Unlike Kentucky’s, Florida’s stats haven’t just been inflated by playing weak opponents. Two weeks ago, the Gators shredded top-ranked Alabama’s run defense.
They nearly beat the top team in the nation despite having an inept passer at quarterback in Emory Jones, who instead contributed to his team’s success by participating in the option attack and otherwise using his legs to, often methodically, move the ball downfield.
Defensively, the Gators’ weakness is easily against the pass. Its secondary is its weakest unit. Whereas the Gators rank 31st nationally in limiting opposing rush yards, they rank 77th nationally in limiting opposing pass yards.
I dislike the Wildcats because they lack a reliable pass attack, despite the easy schedule that they’ve had so far. They start a grad transfer in Will Levis who would have more interceptions than touchdowns if not for his "great" effort against UL Monroe.
For your NCAAF pick, expect the Gator offense to gash Kentucky on the ground while Kentucky struggles to piece drives together.
NCAAF Pick: Gators -7.5 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.