This week our European Banker takes us to the Premier League, where Newcastle United plays host to Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa. Although there might be some “safer” bankers out there across Europe this weekend, betting is all about long-term perceived value and we believe we are getting some of that with these soccer picks.
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 09:00 AM EST at St. James’ Park
Newcastle came out as 3-1 winners against a very poor Everton team on Tuesday night to see them win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since late May 2021. These back-to-back wins have taken the Magpies from 20th to 17th in the overall league standings, at the very least they are out of the relegation zone for now.
There are some major injury concerns for Newcastle heading into this match with no less than six injuries, arguably all important players to the club, at the very least starting players or impact subs. Most notably they are without Scotsman Matt Ritchie and Callum Wilson.
Newcastle comes into today’s game having not kept a clean sheet in five of the last six matches and it remains to be seen if they have genuinely improved or they just beat two bad teams in Leeds and Everton.
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Aston Villa just played out an enthralling 3-3 tie with Leeds United in their last Premier League game. It was a great match for the neutrals watching, who doesn’t love to see a six-goal thriller? With that being said they will not be happy with their overall performance as they were outplayed by Leeds United during the game. Leeds had more goalscoring chances, 61% ball possession, and five more corners.
Villa is currently sitting in 11th place in the league, but their new coach Gerrard has brought in some big names with the likes of Lucas Digne and Philippe Coutinho joining in the January transfer window and he has stated that their goal is to make it back into Europe.
This season they are going to need an impressive run of form if they are to make European football as they currently trail 6th place by 9 points but have also played one extra game, so potentially a 12 point deficit to make up. That’s very hard to do in one of the toughest leagues in the world.
Villa has had problems defensively all season long and just one clean sheet in the previous six games badly needs to be addressed by the team's management and players.
This is pretty much a matchup between two very inconsistent teams, and the fact that we believe this scoreline could end 2-2 or 0-0 tells you all you need to know, although we wouldn’t be completely shocked to see a scoreless game, all the stats and trends are pointing towards goals here and the over 2.5 total is available to bet at -120 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
With both teams being unable to keep clean sheets, but also well able to score goals, we see this game having three goals. Contrary to the fact that just 2 of Newcastle's previous 5 at home have gone over 2.5, just 1 of Aston Villas's previous 5 on the road, and just 2 of these teams' previous 10 meetings at St. James' Park have gone over 2.5.
With that being said both teams have seen more home and away games go over the 2.5 total overall this season. Villa will most likely want to keep a clean sheet here and of the two teams, we feel Villa might be best suited to do so having conceded just 16 on the road compared to Newcastle’s 24 at home.
We like the value on-road team to at least pull off a tie here and the current Premier League odds on Aston Villa draw no bet is coming in at -120. Essentially if Villa tie here you get a push and your stake back. Alternatively, you can bet them at +150 but a tied game will see you lose your stake.
We like Villa in this spot but feel it’s best to cover your stake with the draw no bet option given how inconsistent these teams have been to this point in the season. And for your bet, take one of our top-rated sportsbooks.
Soccer Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-120) at BetOnline
Soccer Pick: Aston Villa Draw No Bet (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.