Because it’s the Super Bowl, it is imperative that every possible angle and situation is covered and we here at BookmakerReview.com will do our best to be willing participants. Hopefully, this one saves you money.
With all the available wagers for Super Bowl LVI, it seems like there is a tsunami of wagering options and NFL odds that could either have you thinking about retirement the day after the big game or where you can find a part-time job to pay off the debt.
Super Bowl LVI
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
As a public service, we are here to help cut through the clutter and offer advice on what NOT to bet on for the Super Bowl. We will supply rational thinking for each wager and if you agree with what to pass on for NFL picks, you can leave a dollar in the jar at the end of this article. By the way, all lines are courtesy of Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
We know this is one of the four most bet options of the Super Bowl and... we are asking you to pass? It’s true and here is why.
Most sportsbooks opened this as 51 or 50.5 on the evening of Jan. 30, and like a faucet with a slow leak that went drip, drip, drip, by Monday night, the books were at 48.5.
In reviewing the numbers of each team for the season and the playoffs, the lower score made a lot of sense. Yet the top sportsbooks linemakers are not in the business of guessing, they have hard data that support their thinking and while they could be wrong, for this type of game, that seems unlikely.
Because we have a singular focus on just one football contest, we analyze it to death. But we are going to keep it simple to understand. Cincinnati has generated nine turnovers in their last four contests. In Los Angeles's past six games, they have committed 13 turnovers while forcing 10.
We can all agree that turnovers are the single most important factor in determining who wins.
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Yet, for totals, if they happen in the red zone, that takes points off the board and if they happen deep in a team’s territory, they will assuredly add points for the opposing team.
Take the 2001 Super Bowl, Baltimore vs. the New York Giants that had a total of only 33. The Ravens led at half 10-0 and nothing was going on that would have led to an over, until there was. The Giants QB Kerry Collins had four interceptions and New York had five turnovers in all and a surefire under turned into an over, with Baltimore a 34-7 winner.
First off, if the total stays at 48.5, it's impossible to hit correctly. Next, the best numbers needed would be 47, 48, 50, or 51, and the latter two figures are not likely to work, because the total has already come down. Because of analytics, traditional football numbers are still hit, but head coaches are now unafraid to go for two points after touchdowns, which blows up the best of plans.
This is the ultimate 50-50 wager and if the idea is to win, putting the odds on your side is the edge you want. This won’t happen here.
While we all know the completion percentages of Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow, what we don’t know is if the first pass will be a screen pass or a 50-yard bomb, which would greatly impact the outcome of such a wager.
This is wager is better suited once the first half is completed and you know who will receive the second-half kickoff. The other element is the score of the game, which will alter the odds. Best to stay away.
To make this wager before the game is played makes this very much like the coin toss.
Any one of us can take the average number of pass attempts by each quarterback and make a guess. What we don’t know is if either team would jump to a 14 or more-point lead, which would force the trailing QB to start throwing more, which would make the initial number irrelevant.
Because the ranges are so wide, the odds reflected are so outrageous, there is almost no value in betting for or against any of these situations and numbers.
In the end, be selective. Also, remember to do the homework for Super Bowl betting to give you the best chance for the outcome you want.