Wednesday, May 26, 2021 – 7:40 PM EDT Minute Maid Park
● Dodgers: Trever Bauer (5-2, 1.98 ERA)
● Astros: Luis Garcia (2-3, 3.38 ERA)
The Houston Astros are one of the best teams in the league, but you would not know it by looking at their 26-22 record. Currently they are in second place in the AL West, but eventually they should be leading the division. The Astros have a +52 run differential which is the fifth best in the league. On average Houston wins each game by 1.08 runs. Their lineup averages 5.21 runs per game which is the second best in the league.
The Astros lineup is incredibly dangerous as virtually every player is above-average offensively. After a poor 2020 season, 2B Jose Altuve has rebounded with a great season. Additionally, SS Carlos Correa, 3B Alex Bregman, and 1B Yuli Gurriel are performing well. Based on Houston’s lineup, they have a chance to win every game they play this season. Opposing the Houston Astros are the Los Angeles Dodgers who are in second place in the NL West. The Dodgers like the Astros are the best team in their division even though they do not have the best record.
As a result of their current eight game winning streak, the Dodgers have a +79 run differential which is tied for the best in the league. On average, Los Angeles wins each game by 1.65 runs. Additionally, LA’s lineup averages 5.25 runs per game which is the most in the league. With a designated hitter against the Astros, they have an even more dangerous lineup than usual on Wednesday night.
Both teams are relying on strong starting pitchers on Tuesday night. For the Astros, one of their weaknesses is usually in starting pitching. However, for Wednesday they have the benefit of relying on promising rookie Luis Garcia. Going into the season Garcia was expected to be a marginal pitcher based on his lack of experience, but so far, he has put together a decent season. Garcia has a 3.38 ERA, and a 4.31 xFIP. He is certainly not one of the stronger pitchers in the league, but he is a reliable arm on a strong offensive team with weak pitching.
The only worry that the Astros should have about Garcia is that he typically pitches for only five innings per start. With a vulnerable bullpen, Houston is vulnerable to LA’s lineup late in the game. Opposing Garcia is Trevor Bauer for the LA Dodgers. Last season Bauer had a 1.73 ERA and won the NL Cy Young Award for the Cincinnati Reds. This season with the Dodgers, he is off to a strong start as he has a 5-2 record, and a 1.98 ERA. However, in this season and in 2020, Bauer had an xFIP above three. Eventually Bauer should regress to allow a little more than three runs for every nine innings he pitchers.
Against a strong Astros lineup, Bauer should have his toughest test of the season. When looking at Bauer’s 2021 game log, he has yet to face an MLB team that averages more than 4.69 runs per game. The Astros have 5.21 runs per game and they should give Bauer some trouble.
The money line odds for Wednesday night’s game have been efficiently set. Los Angeles should be favored, and the odds reflect this. However, the total has been set too low at only eight runs. The Dodgers lineup averages the most runs per game in the league while the Astros average the second most runs. Combined both teams average 10.46 runs per game which is 2.46 than the run total for Wednesday’s game.
The total has been set so low based on Trevor Bauer’s strength, but he is not nearly as untouchable, or should I say unhittable as he seems. It might end up being a sweat, but the best bet for Wednesday’s game is the over.
MLB Pick: Over 8 Runs -115 (BetOnline)