Thursday, May 20, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Los Angeles hurlers have dominated Arizona bats in the first three games of the set, the Dodgers winning each one while limiting the Diamondbacks to four runs. Walker Buehler started things with a 3-1 LA win on Monday, followed by Julio Urias in a 9-1 final Tuesday and then Clayton Kershaw delivering a 4-2 win in Wednesday’s clash.
Those victories give the Dodgers 8-straight at home in the rivalry with Arizona, and seven dubyas over their last eight games as they look to correct a 4-14 stretch a couple of weeks back. A big weekend series in San Francisco against the NL West-leading Giants is on deck for Los Angeles, and manager Dave Roberts has decided to push Trevor Bauer (4-2, 2.20) back a day while turning to his bullpen to close out the Diamondbacks.
There’s no question top sportsbooks would have laid some heavy chalk on the Dodgers with Bauer on the bump. We should still expect a moneyline of -200 or greater with Arizona sending Merrill Kelly (2-4, 5.24) out to face Los Angeles, with the total running 8-8½ once numbers are released Thursday morning.
Only the Rockies have a higher ERA in the National League than Arizona, and Kelly’s 5.24 is right in line with the rest of the Diamondbacks’ staff. A big chunk of that number came in back-to-back road starts during April when Kelly surrendered six earned runs each outing in Colorado and Washington. He has done a much better job in May, though each of his last two assignments ended up in Arizona’s loss column as small underdogs on the baseball odds board.
Kelly will be facing the Dodgers for just the fourth time in his young career, and making his first appearance on the LA mound since his rookie 2019 campaign. He has yet to record a win against the Dodgers, not surprising with a 5.06 ERA in 19 innings. It’s also not surprising is to see Mookie Betts going 2-for-3 with a homer against Kelly.
We have to keep in mind the current 7-1 spurt by the Dodgers has come against the likes of the Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins and these Diamondbacks. That trio of clubs is a combined 58-72 (.446) on the season, and -58 in the run differential column. Los Angeles will begin a much tougher stretch on the fixture this weekend in San Francisco, continuing the road trip with a 2-game stop in Houston next week, then come home to host the Giants and St. Louis Cardinals.
We would’ve seen betting odds of -325 or so with Bauer on the hill this evening, but after hitting the 113-pitch count in three of his last four assignments, he’s getting an extra day. The two pitchers we’ll likely see in his place are David Price (1-0, 5.06) and Edwin Uceta (0-2, 2.45). Price has made 311 career starts in the majors to just one for the rookie Uceta, and we shouldn’t expect more than 30-40 pitches from either. Price worked a clean inning in Tuesday’s 9-1 LA win, needing only seven pitches while striking out one. Eduardo Escobar has the most experience against the former Vanderbilt star, going 5-for-26 (.238) with two doubles when facing Price. Uceta would be facing the Diamondbacks for the first time.
Marvin Hudson, acting crew chief for this group of umpires, will complete one full circuit through the rotation calling balls and strikes in the series finale. Home favorites are 5-1 with Hudson at the dish this year, including 2-0 when the moneyline is -200 or higher, while totals have run 3-4 O/U in his seven plate assignments. Now in his 24th big league season, Hudson will be behind the mask at Dodger Stadium for the first time since 2016, with his last four times to have dish duty at Chavez Ravine coming up short on the totals.
Clear skies and the thermometer sitting on 65° is what the weatherman is telling us to expect for the start of Thursday night’s game. A light southerly breeze (out to left) is also in the forecast. Despite the mystery surrounding who will be on the mound for the Dodgers, everything still adds up to LA being the right MLB pick to make in this one.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -180 at BookMaker