NFL Pick: 2023 Denver Broncos Over 8½ Wins -110 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Denver Broncos are coming off a 5-12 season that was among the most disappointing times in franchise history. Despite the high-profile trade for quarterback Russell Wilson, the Broncos finished dead last in scoring as Wilson had the worst season of his Hall of Fame-caliber career.
Rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett lasted 15 games before he was fired with a 4-11 record. The team has moved on with Sean Payton, the very successful coach of the Saints from 2006-2021. Few are better equipped to fix Wilson and this offense, and that is why Payton is the favorite at the top US sportsbooks for the Coach of the Year award (+900 at BetOnline).
But with an over/under of 8.5 wins, can the Broncos get to a winning record in Payton’s first year while playing in a tough division owned by the Chiefs, or will it take longer to turn this program around?
The Changes That Matter
You think coaching matters in the NFL? We are about to see one of the best case studies ever as one of the game’s all-time great offensive minds is taking over a unit that has talent, but ranked 32nd in scoring last year.
Sean Payton’s Biggest Task Yet
Sean Payton is familiar with taking jobs under difficult circumstances. He became the head coach of the Saints in 2006 following their Hurricane Katrina season. He finished 10-6 and won Coach of the Year in directing the team to the NFC Championship Game.
But you could argue Payton has a tougher task ahead of him in Denver. At least in New Orleans, he was getting a young Drew Brees in his prime at quarterback, and the team drafted a potential superstar in running back Reggie Bush.
With the Broncos, Payton has to clean up Hackett’s mess and fix Russell Wilson, who never played worse than he did last year. In fact, you could argue Wilson has not been right since halfway through the 2020 season in Seattle.
Over Wilson’s last 38 games, his passer rating is 92.6 and he has averaged 7.34 yards per pass attempt. In his 38 starts before this stretch in 2018-20, his passer rating was 111.5 and he averaged 8.07 yards per attempt.
The Pressure Is On
Payton has put a target on himself after making unusual comments for a head coach about how bad of a job Hackett did in 2022. This will make it look even worse if the Broncos do not significantly improve under Payton in 2023.
But as a quarterback guru, Payton has done a great job in recent years of adapting to other quarterbacks when Brees was injured in 2019-20. He also knows how to produce a high-volume passing game with the best of them, but that may not suit Wilson in his current form.
The offense has nowhere to go but up this year. As for defense, that was always the culprit in New Orleans for the 4 seasons where Payton had his worst record (7-9) and missed the playoffs. Fortunately, he should have a decent unit this year. The Broncos may regress some on defense, which is less consistent than offense from year to year, but it will not be one of the worst units. Not when the secondary has Patrick Surtain II and Justin Simmons.
However, the pass rush could be lacking after Bradley Chubb was traded to Miami last season, and 2022 team sack leader Dre’Mont Jones is with Seattle now. The Broncos added Frank Clark from the Chiefs in June. He’s had some big moments over the years, but his regular-season production is rarely strong.
New and Recharged Offensive Parts
The Denver offense was the punchline to many jokes last year, but it must be noted that the top quarterback, running back, wide receivers, and tight end on this team all missed multiple games to injury. In fact, the only players on the entire Denver roster to start more than 15 games were defenders Kareem Jackson and Patrick Surtain II.
Javonte Williams will be back at running back, and hopefully Payton will treat him like his Alvin Kamara. If Williams is not 100% after his injury, the team added Samaje Perine from the Bengals, and he can be an effective 3rd-down back who offers receiving ability and a change of pace.
Unfortunately, the Broncos will not get Tim Patrick back at wide receiver, as he tore his Achilles after tearing his ACL last year. His season is over again. The Broncos still have Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton as a solid duo, and Wilson had his best connection last year with Jeudy.
Back From the IL
Tight end Greg Dulcich was only a 3rd-round rookie who missed 7 games last year, but he flashed some real potential with a pair of games with more than 80 receiving yards. He should be a bigger contributor this year.
Left tackle Garett Bolles is an integral part to the offensive line, and he missed 12 games last year. He is back, and the Broncos added right tackle Mike McGlinchey from San Francisco, where he made 69 starts since 2017.
Denver’s highest draft pick was 2nd-round wideout Marvin Mims. He averaged 19.5 yards per catch at Oklahoma and has 4.38 speed. With Patrick’s injury, a door opens for Mims to produce this season.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
On paper, adding a proven head coach to a team with a solid defense and a quarterback who was on track for the Hall of Fame should lead to improvement. Throw in the fact that Denver blew 5 fourth-quarter leads last year, and that makes positive regression even more likely.
But what about the schedule? We know the Chiefs have won the AFC West every year since 2016, and the Broncos have lost 15 games in a row to the Chiefs. Maybe that streak ends this year, because oddly enough, some of Wilson’s best moments came in the games against Kansas City last year.
But even if the Chiefs sweep Denver again, the Broncos are going to have some winnable games in the division with the Raiders (Week 1) and Chargers (Week 14 and Week 17). They also play Washington in Week 2 with an inexperienced quarterback (Sam Howell) learning a new offense.
The Home Advantage
In case you forgot, Denver usually has a solid home-field advantage thanks to the altitude.
The Broncos will host flawed teams like the Packers (Week 7), Vikings (Week 11), Browns (Week 12), and Patriots (Week 16). They have very winnable road games in Chicago in Week 4 and Houston in Week 13.
As someone who generally believes in Russell Wilson despite 2022, it is hard to think Payton will not make this work out. It may still come up shy of the playoffs, but the Broncos should go over 8.5 wins thanks to a much-improved offense, so keep that in mind for your betting picks.
The defense will probably take a step back, but you will take that trade-off every time in this league if it means your quarterback is living up to his potential.
Last year was a nightmare. Hopefully, Wilson and Payton are not both past their primes, and we can actually enjoy seeing Denver in prime-time spots again.
2022 Recap: Russ Looks Cooked
If there was ever a case for firing a head coach one game into his tenure, Nathaniel Hackett would have been the one to pick. In what was supposed to be a comfortable road win in Seattle against Russell Wilson’s former team, the Broncos played poorly and found themselves trailing late.
In what should have been another game-winning drive for Wilson, the Broncos badly mismanaged the clock, and Hackett looked content to play for a 64-yard field goal attempt. Brandon McManus missed the kick and the Broncos started 0-1.
You hoped it was opening jitters, but as the weeks went by, we saw serious issues with this team’s ability to get plays in on time, and to call good plays in the red zone. The Broncos won their next 2 games, but neither was in impressive fashion as they scored a combined 27 points.
Injuries and Prime Time Struggles
Injuries did not help the offense. Tim Patrick, a very good No. 3 wide receiver, tore his ACL before the season started. Running back Javonte Williams was hoping for a big year after impressing as a rookie, but the Broncos struggled to work him in, and he too was lost for the season with an injury after 4 games.
The worst thing about Denver was just how often we had to watch this trainwreck of an offense in prime time. The Broncos played at night 4 times through Week 6, and no game was uglier than the Week 5 loss to the Colts, who were undergoing their own problems with Matt Ryan trying to fit into the offense.
The game went to overtime, to Al Michaels’ disgust, and Wilson tossed a pair of interceptions in the end zone to lose the game 12-9.
Offensive Challenges
Incredibly, the Broncos never scored more than 23 points until a Week 14 loss against the Chiefs, which was actually one of Wilson’s best performances last season. He left the game with a concussion, and he missed a start due to that. When Wilson returned on Christmas to face the Rams, the Broncos were embarrassed by Baker Mayfield in a 51-14 loss that spoiled what was otherwise a very good season-long performance by the defense.
But Wilson and this offense wasted the Denver defense too many times. Denver finished 5-10 in close games, and no team played more close games in the fourth quarter than Denver. But the clutch moments that Wilson lived for in Seattle saw Denver struggle to a 3-10 record at game-winning drive opportunities. Denver’s 5 blown leads in the fourth quarter trailed only the Raiders (6) for the most in 2022.
NFL Pick: 2023 Denver Broncos Over 8½ Wins -110 at BetOnline
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