The Cubs are back to being a losing team, failing to build on the momentum they had out of the gate in the second half and falling to the Cardinals on Wednesday night to guarantee they won’t win yet another series against their division foes.
St. Louis, on the other hand, has begun to find a bit of a groove and just might be re-entering the playoff picture. On Thursday, Chicago goes for the split, while St. Louis goes for the commanding 3-1 series win. Will pride lift the Cubs to victory, or should the trends prevail? Here’s where you should be looking the top-rated sportsbooks.
Thursday, July 22, 2021 – 7:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
It’s the same old story for the Cubs, who for years struggled with strikeouts and swings and misses in general. That was the case earlier in the season, too, when Chicago was legitimately one of the worst teams in baseball. After a short run of winning and power hitting, the Cubs’ swinging strike issues have come back to haunt them.
The Cubs have been awful at the plate over the last two weeks, posting an 87 wRC+ to rank 24th in all of baseball over that span with a poor 23.6% strikeout rate which is the ninth-highest. They have the third-worst contact rate at 73.2% over that span and haven’t walked nearly enough, at 7.6%, to make up for that. When they’ve put bat to ball, it’s been great; the Cubs are 10th in hard-hit rate during this split. The issue has been some horrible at-bats by some very undisciplined hitters. It sounds simple, but the Cubs just need to start getting the bat on the ball and putting it in play.
That’s the least Adbert Alzolay can ask for, anyway. Thursday’s starter is still trying to find his groove in the big leagues with a 4.59 ERA entering this start and an even-worse 4.79 expected ERA. He’s flashed some great potential at times during this season, memorably turning in a gem against these very Cardinals in May, but for the most part he hasn’t struck enough guys out to mask his issues with barrels and hard contact.
It sounds foolish to wax poetic about an offense that has struggled for many weeks and just barely got by the Cubs with a 3-2 final on Wednesday, but I do think the Cardinals can hit, and that there are many signs pointing towards a tear at the dish. St. Louis has been a respectable 15th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and while this team hasn’t exactly loaded the bases with walks or impressed you with power thanks to a .174 ISO, it’s just been putting together good at-bats.
In that way, the Cardinals are the anti-Cubs. They’ve struck out just 20.7% of the time over that 14-day span, one of the best marks in baseball, and rank fourth in contact rate at 79.4%. When the Cardinals run into a pitcher like Alzolay who has issues with giving up quality contact, good news can follow.Take that into account the next time you check your MLB odds.
Speaking of pitchers, we should talk about the probable for the Cardinals in Kwang Hyun Kim. The lefty has been superb in his second big-league season with a low 2.87 ERA backed by some solid peripherals. The 33-year-old has generally been good about not walking guys, and a 34.7% hard-hit rate proves that he can execute his gameplan of inducing soft contact. With just a .328 xwOBA on contact, the fact that he doesn’t rack up many strikeouts doesn’t scare you.
Kim isn’t the ideal pitcher to go up against the Cubs, but they’ve been so bad at the plate lately that it shouldn’t matter. He should still be able to induce some softer contact against a team that doesn’t make a lot of it, considering he’s done the same against better lineups. On the other hand, I absolutely love the matchup of the contact-happy Cardinals going up against a guy that gives up rockets in Alzolay. The gap in the offenses here should be grand, and I will once again be rolling with the Redbirds as short home favorites. I like the the Cardinals for my MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.