College Football Week 5 Early Value Analysis: Boise State Is a Live Dog (Archive)
NCAAF Top Pick: Boise State +3.5 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The oddsmakers have posted the early lines for Week 5 of college football so let’s see where they go with some early value analysis so that we can take advantage of the underdogs that are getting too many points and the favorites laying too few at the top offshore sportsbooks.
Last week we connected on Arizona State and Stanford, both double-digit underdogs that gave us an easy cover. Let’s scope out the NCAAF odds at the best offshore shops and make some more money this week in college football!
Missouri Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT at FirstBank Stadium
Key Facts
- Vanderbilt has covered in 4 of the last 5 games against Missouri.
- Vanderbilt ranks No. 14 in scoring, averaging 33.1 points per game.
- Vanderbilt ranks No. 17 in forced turnovers with eight.
Bona Fide Rivalry
When teams from the same conference face each other, it’s a different dynamic. However, when they are from the SAME DIVISION, within that conference, it’s a bona fide rivalry. And such is the case here as we have SEC East foes, Missouri, and Vanderbilt, squaring off in the Commodores playpen.
Mizoo is 4-0 (2-2 ATS) while Vandy is 2-3 and has yet to cover the number this season. That’s a pretty good reason for the public to pound the Tigers at the betting windows but we all know that oddsmakers adjust accordingly and, eventually, the number fits just right.
The Pick
I like Vanderbilt in this spot. Lately, they’ve played the Tigers tough as evidenced by covering in four of their last five meetings with Missouri. The line has gone from Missouri -11.5 to -13.5 and although we would love to get two full touchdowns we can always buy the hook or cross our fingers and hope it drifts just a bit higher so we don’t have to pay the extra 10 cents.
NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt +13.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. Memphis Tigers
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Key Facts
- Memphis has a record of 1-3-0 against the spread this season.
- Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty has a team-leading 407 rushing yards on a 5.6 yards per carry average while scoring six rushing and two receiving touchdowns.
- Boise State has averaged 38 points per game over their last two contests.
Magic Number
Anytime that the number crosses the magical 3, I take note of it and will either bet the favorite below three or the dog if it drifts north of three. Or, maybe I pass it altogether but I never ignore it because that’s how important that number is in both college and NFL football.
In this case, we see the public is backing the Memphis Tigers at home as this line has gone from Memphis -2 to where it now sits at -3.5 as of this Tuesday afternoon writing. The public may be fooled into thinking that Memphis is worthy of laying the lumber because they are at home and gave Missouri a fight before bowing, 34-27, last week.
The Pick
But no, the Broncos are a live dog here and their offense has caught fire over the last few weeks with a 34-31 win over San Diego State and a 42-18 blowout of North Dakota the week before. I say Boise State will pull the upset but I’ll grab the points just in case.
NCAAF Pick: Boise State +3.5 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Folsom Field
Key Facts
- USC is ranked No. 1 in scoring, averaging 55 points per game.
- USC ranks No. 3 in passing, averaging 377.3 yards per game.
- Colorado ranks 116th in defense, allowing 33.3 points per game.
Plummeting
The college football odds have plummeted six points from when they were released earlier this weekend to where we can now get USC as low as -21.5 at Bookmaker. I have scoured the injury reports and there is no mention that Colorado’s two-way star, Travis Hunter, will return after suffering a lacerated liver against Colorado State.
Colorado was a nice story for a few weeks with a huge upset of TCU before being exposed by Oregon last week, 42-6, and not even sniffing a cover as a 21-point road dog. Now they will return home but must welcome the No. 1 offense in the nation with a quarterback pulling the trigger who is the odds-on-favorite to win back-to-back Heismans in USC’s Caleb Williams.
The Pick
I will grant you that the Trojans defense is a concern but this number is too tempting to pass up, especially considering USC has won the last 10 meetings and has covered four of the last five games between them.
If you want to buy the hook to get USC -21, I wouldn’t blame you, but this should be a blowout.
NCAAF Pick: USC -21.5 (-106) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.