College Football Week 1 Last Chance Picks for Saturday: Lines Move in Our Favor (Archive)
NCAAF Pick: Indiana +31 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Each week we scour the college football odds board in search of value, those games in which the lines have moved enough to warrant a last-chance bet on the side giving us the most bang for our betting buck.
Let’s see what Week 1 has in store for us.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, September 02, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Key Facts
- Ohio State was 2-3 ATS in their last five games in which they were favored by 30 points or more.
- Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord has thrown a total of 58 passes for 606 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in his two years with the Buckeyes.
- Indiana is 3-3 ATS over their last games in which they were underdogs by 10 or more points.
Swallow Hard
I confess you will have to swallow hard to bet the Hoosiers over the Buckeyes but we don’t expect Indiana to win the game but simply cover the inflated number that has swelled from Ohio State -27 to as high as -31 over at BetOnline.
C.J. Stroud is no longer commanding the Buckeyes’ offense, having made the leap to the next level as the No. 2 overall pick for the Houston Texans. That duty will fall to lightly tested junior Kyle McCord who will have very big shoes to fill.
Home, Sweet Home
This will be a home game for Indiana and as bad as they were last season, I expect they will be better on both sides of the ball. Last year’s Hoosiers edition set the bar quite low so that wouldn’t take much to improve upon a unit that ended with a 4-8 record in 2022.
Nevertheless, we are getting a boatload of points and with a new offense in place for the Buckeyes, I believe we may see a few uncharacteristic turnovers that will allow the Hoosiers’ offense to at least chew some time off the clock and keep this one within the generous margins.
NCAAF Pick: Indiana +31 (-112) at BetOnline
Utah State Aggies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, September 02, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kinnick Stadium
Key Facts
- Iowa averaged only 17.7 points per game last season, ranking them 123rd in that category.
- Utah State quarterback, Cooper Legas, returns for his second full season as a starter after throwing for nearly 2000 yards in 2022.
- Utah State won five of their last eight games in 2022.
Keep In Mind
When evaluating our end-of-week value picks, we should always keep in mind the key numbers in college, and professional, football. Those are the numbers that consist of field goal and touchdown combinations in addition to the 3 and 7 which are the magic numbers in close matchups.
In games like this one, we see Iowa is ranked No. 25 in the nation while Utah State is nowhere near sniffing the upper echelons of college football after a middling 6-7 season in which they were blown out by Memphis in something called the First Responder Bowl.
Key Numbers
The line opened at Iowa -19 ½ but that number has drifted beyond a few key numbers like 20, 21, 23, 24, and is now settling at Iowa -24½ which means we are getting plenty of value with the Aggies.
Hawkeyes’ quarterback, a Michigan transfer named Cade McNamara, has been cleared to play which is why the line has spiked but it has gone too far as Iowa’s offense is hardly a juggernaut as evidenced by its 17.7 points per game average last season.
Let’s grab the points with Utah State and fade the public.
NCAAF Pick: Utah State +24½ (-115) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports)
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Liberty Flames
Saturday, September 02, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Williams Stadium
Key Facts
- Bowling Green covered in only four of 13 games last season.
- Bowling Green allowed 33.3. points per game, ranking them 113th in points allowed last season.
- Bowling Green averaged 23.2 points per game, ranking them 101st in scoring last season.
QB Competition
It appears as though Jonathan Bennett edged Kaidon Salter to remain the Flames’ starting quarterback. But either way, both passers are solid but I believe Bennett is the better choice after a season under center with this offense.
The line opened at Liberty -11½ but that has slowly tumbled to where it currently sits at -9 which allows us to bet the Flames below a key number of 10 (one touchdown, extra point, and field goal) and I’m happy about that. However, I do believe Liberty has the chops to win this one by two touchdowns if their offense, installed under new head coach Jamey Chadwell, clicks right away.
Tough Time
As for Bowling Green, they will have a tough time keeping up with this multi-dimensional Liberty offense. We should keep in mind that the Flames have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 Week 1 games.
This will also be the team’s first game under the Conference USA banner after toiling as an Independent for several years and will be at home which is an added incentive for this to be a convincing win for the Flames.
NCAAF Pick: Liberty -9 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.