Top NCAAB Pick: Morehead State-Alabama Over 145 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The 2023-24 NCAA Basketball season kicks off on Monday, and we are here with our three best bets for opening night.
These bets are value bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs. However, we have no sides for this evening, although we do have three value totals where the posted lines seem deflated.
Georgia State Panthers vs. Belmont Bruins
Monday, November 6, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Curb Event Center Arena
With neither defense rated highly on the KenPom efficiency ratings, bet the Over in what we feel will be a higher-scoring game than the total suggests when Georgia State visits Belmont to open the season.
Dangerous from Downtown
Belmont comes off a nice 21-11 season in its first year in the Missouri Valley Conference, and the success was keyed by the offense, as the Bruins finished fifth in the nation in three-point shooting at 38.9% and 12th in eFG% at 55.3%.
However, the Bruins lost Ben Sheppard to the NBA, but guard Keishawn Davidson is back after suffering a torn labrum last year, as is MVC Freshman of the Year Cade Tyson. Belmont is going up against a Georgia State defense ranked just 188th nationally in defensive efficiency on KenPom to begin this season, so look for Belmont’s offensive success from last year to carry over to tonight.
Defense a Different Story
It is a totally different story for the Belmont defense, however, as that unit was below average last season and begins this year ranked a touch lower than Georgia State in defensive efficiency at 191st, an area the Panthers can exploit.
Georgia State should be much improved offensively from last year’s turnover-prone unit, thanks to a couple of three-star recruits in shooting guard Lucas Taylor (Wake Forest) and small forward Toneari Lane (Winthrop) transferring in, both of whom are upgrades offensively to what the Panthers had at those positions last season.
So with the Belmont offense still potent, the Georgia State offense expected to be improved, and two suspect defenses, bet the Over on opening night.
Predicted Score: Belmont 82 – Georgia State 73
NCAAB Pick: Over 145.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Morehead State Eagles vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Monday, November 6, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum
Alabama is ranked 10th overall in the country on KenPom to begin this season and seems quite capable of scoring or getting close to scoring 90 points vs. the Morehead State defense, but while that is reflected in the big spread, we still feel the total looks a bit light and are thus betting the Over.
Top 15 Offense
Alabama is well-balanced on both ends of the court, but the matchup we like here based on the KenPom ratings is their 14th ranking in offensive efficiency going up against a Morehead State defense ranked 229th in efficiency to start the year.
Yes, Alabama lost four starters from the team that won both the SEC regular season and conference tournament titles last season, but the Tide reloaded with three incoming transfers in Aaron Estrada (Hofstra), Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (Cal State Fullerton) and Grant Nelson (North Dakota State) that each averaged at least 16 points for their respective teams last year, joining the lone incumbent and expected go-to guy Mark Sears.
What Defense?
That new Alabama roster could not have asked for a better matchup defensively to start this season, but while Morehead State would have trouble stopping a nosebleed, the offense does return OVC Player of the Year Mark Freeman.
And Freeman is expected to get some help offensively from two transfers in Dieonte Miles (Xavier) and NAIA transfer Riley Minix, who could be a star if he can handle the jump in class. The one monkey wrench to this Over could be the stout Alabama defense, but that may be diminished by an excess of garbage time late with the Crimson Tide favored by 22 points here.
Besides, if Alabama approaches or surpasses 90 points as we expect, it would leave a lot of wiggle room for the Morehead offense to cash this Over, so that is our wager for Monday.
Predicted Score: Alabama 89 – Morehead State 67
NCAAB Pick: Over 145 (-110) at Bookmaker
Denver Pioneers vs. UC San Diego Tritons
Monday, November 6, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at LionTree Arena
Value is not always found in marquee matchups, and this contest is proof as we feel the Over has great value when Denver visits UC San Diego.
345th Defense
Denver was bad defensively last season, and KenPom expects another atrocity this year, ranking the Pioneers a woeful 345th in defensive efficiency to begin the season, expecting them to allow a whopping 106.3 points per 100 possessions, almost an NBA level.
UC San Diego can take advantage as it returns four starters from last season, three of whom averaged double digits in Bryce Pope (18.4 PPG), Roddie Anderson III (13.1) and Francis Nwaokorie (12.8), while the fourth returnee J’Raan Brooks was averaging 9.9 points through eight games before suffering a season-ending injury.
Not Great Either
As for the Triton defense, while it is not Denver-level bad, it is still poor, ranking 278th in efficiency on KenPom. The question is, can the Denver offense take advantage of an overhauled roster featuring eight new players? Well, considering how bad the offense was, we think there is only one direction for it to go with all the fresh faces, and opening vs. a weak defense helps.
The expectation is the Pioneers with go with a three-guard offense and two seven-footers in the frontcourt, with the biggest guard addition being transfer Isaiah Addo-Ankrah (UTSA), who has an excellent three-point shot. That offensive formation can create matchup problems for the UCSD defense provided Addo-Ankrah continues his sharp perimeter shooting for his new team.
Therefore, we expect both poor defenses to be hard-pressed to make many stops, resulting in an Over.
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 82 – Denver 76
NCAAB Pick: Over 147 (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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