NCAAB Top Pick: Santa Clara -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The top sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s action and two games interest me so far:
- Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
- Santa Clara vs. San Diego
For your college basketball best bets, I will recommend playing Georgia Tech on the moneyline and Santa Clara to cover the spread.
Syracuse Orange vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 05:30 PM ET at McCamish Pavilion
Georgia Tech’s Defensive Focus
The Yellow Jackets place priority on defending the basket. This priority is evident in their willingness to concentrate defensive personnel in front of the basket.
Besides collapsing inside to make shots at the rim difficult for opposing would-be scorers to get up, Georgia Tech will employ drop coverage to inhibit opposing ball-handlers from using screens to reach the basket.
They will force opposing players with the ball around the basket to make difficult passes or to pull up for a jump shot. Georgia Tech ranks among the nation’s leaders at limiting field goal attempts around the basket.
The Yellow Jackets are likewise among the better teams in the nation at limiting field goal efficiency at the rim.
Syracuse’s Offense Is Not Built For This
Given Georgia Tech’s statistically evident devotion to stopping teams at the basket, Syracuse will need to rely on guys who can pull up for jumpers inside the arc.
The main problem for the Orange is that they are not built to rely on two-point jumpers. They rank 327th nationally at converting two-point jumpers. Syracuse is also awfully inefficient from deep.
Syracuse’s Woeful Defense
Syracuse is in trouble because it will need to shoot efficiently to win games. In each of its five ACC losses, the Orange failed to reach 70 points. Conversely, they tend to exceed that number in their wins.
Ranking 13th in the conference in defensive efficiency, they lack the ability to win games in which their offense struggles to make shots, given their defense is too weak.
Lacking Rim Protection
On defense, Syracuse lacks size and ability at the rim. This dual paucity renders the Orange susceptible to drive-and-kick attempts from the opposing offense.
But there are also bigger reasons why opposing offenses might have an easy time amassing uncontested three-point attempts against Syracuse.
The entire Orange defense, as a unit, struggles in man, which is why, for example, Syracuse reverted to its traditional Boeheim-era zone defense against Louisville.
Louisville was having too easy of a time scoring at the basket, although Syracuse’s zone then made it all the easier for the Cardinals to shoot efficiently from deep.
Georgia Tech’s Shooters
A variety of avenues exist, therefore, for Georgia Tech to gain propitious three-point shooting opportunities.
The Yellow Jackets have improved their three-point shooting in ACC play, ranking fifth in three-point efficiency.
Miles Kelly is a microcosm of this team-wide three-point shooting improvement, although the Jackets can also count on Kyle Sturdivant with his 36.9 three-point percentage and Kowacie Reeves with his 39.4 three-point percentage.
Two Moves
When Georgia Tech does want to score at the basket, two moves that it likes to make use of are the ball-screen reject and the pick-and-roll.
The Yellow Jackets love to initiate offense with a screen, and they are effective when their ball-handler acts like he will use the screen but then doesn’t or uses the screen to pass sometimes after his initial dribble penetration creates open targets for him.
Bonus Consideration
Syracuse is coming off an upset win over North Carolina, so there is let-down potential for the Orange team.
NCAAB Pick: Georgia Tech ML (-110) at BetOnline
Santa Clara Broncos vs. San Diego Toreros
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion
The Importance of Time
I like Santa Clara tonight but, does it make sense to like the Broncos after they lost their first meeting against San Diego, on their court?
The answer is yes because that game was an early one, starting at 4 p.m., Pacific Time. These early games have been an absolute problem for Santa Clara.
Their worst losses – by 30 points against Ohio State, by 24 at home to Saint Mary’s and by 15 to California – were all games that started at 4 p.m. local.
Conversely, Santa Clara’s best games, including its upset win over Gonzaga, started in the evening.
The First Meeting
In its first game against San Diego, Santa Clara played lethargically, evincing its discomfort with early games.
The Broncos lost because they were abysmal shooting-wise, making four of their 29 there-point attempts, and because they turned the ball over a lot.
They should have won that game because of their dominance on the glass, yet their offense just couldn’t put the ball in the basket.
Dominance on the Glass
Led by former Virginia Cavalier, Francisco Caffaro, Santa Clara is one of the nation’s tallest teams and also one of the top rebounding teams.
The Broncos’ ability to dominate the glass will make scoring at the basket easy, especially against a team that is one of the worst in the nation at limiting opposing efficiency at the rim because it lacks size and strength inside.
Countering The Hard Hedge
San Diego likes to employ a hard hedge when guarding ball screens.
This makes the Toreros more vulnerable to opposing big men who can shoot the three. Despite their great size, the Broncos bigs are not clumsy guys.
Look out for Johnny O’Neil, who was one of the Broncos players who were off in their first meeting against San Diego.
Whereas he made two of twelve three-point shots in that game, O’Neil has been an efficient three-point shooter throughout his career.
Santa Clara’s Defense
San Diego’s chaotic style of play, created by its penchant for pushing the tempo, will lead to many turnovers. When the Toreros do get shots off, they characteristically pose their biggest threat from behind the arc.
However, Santa Clara is built to punish San Diego for prioritizing the three-point shot. Stylistically, Broncos defenders like to stay glued to opposing players behind the arc. They ably fight through screens and consistently make it difficult for opposing shooters.
Gonzaga’s top three-point shooter, for example, mustered all of three three-point shot attempts – and made none of them – against the Broncos.
Overall, Santa Clara’s defense ranks number one in its conference at limiting three-point efficiency, making it well-suited to negate San Diego’s offensive strength.
NCAAB Pick: Santa Clara -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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