Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
The Portland Trail Blazers have enough small-market value to go in your NBA picks for Friday’s matchup with the wounded L.A. Clippers.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Friday, October 29, 2021- 10:00 PM EDT at Moda Center
It’s remarkable how well the Los Angeles Clippers did without Kawhi Leonard during last year’s playoffs. After Leonard blew out his right knee in Game 4 of their second-round matchup with the top-seeded Utah Jazz, the Clippers dug deep and won the next two games to take the series. Then they dropped the Western Conference Finals to the Phoenix Suns in six games – but at least they split the cash at 3-3 ATS.
I’d like to think the Clippers sans Leonard are still undervalued heading into Friday’s tilt with the Portland Trail Blazers (2-2 SU and ATS), but it’s not just Leonard and Serge Ibaka (back) who are missing this time – it’s also Marcus Morris (knee), who’s out indefinitely after playing just two games. The Blazers are 3-point home faves on the NBA odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review); that’s enough of a bargain for us to jump on one of those vintage Portland trolleys and go for a ride.
Don’t Play The Sap For Dame
This might seem like one of our crazier NBA picks here at the home office – if you remember how awful the Trail Blazers were at defense last year. If you don’t, they were No. 29 out of the league’s 30 teams at 113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. This year? Slightly above average at 102.8 points through four games. It could be a small sample size, of course.
Speaking of which, Damian Lillard (minus-5.2 BPM, as per Basketball Reference) has been absolutely awful thus far, but the offensive part can be waved away because he’s 6-for-35 (17.1 percent) from downtown. That should regress to the mean before too long. CJ McCollum (plus-6.9 BPM) has been carrying the load at both ends, and the rest of the team is pitching in on defense – except for Norman Powell, who remains questionable with a case of left patellar tendinopathy. That doesn’t sound good.
Kawhactus Jack
Life could be worse. Leonard’s knee injury may have cost the Clippers their first title last year, and it could be another lost year in L.A. if he doesn’t make it back in time for the playoffs. Paul George (plus-6.9 BPM) is a fantastic regular-season player; however, Reggie Jackson (minus-5.2 BPM) is off to a slow start, and Justise Winslow (minus-7.2 BPM), himself no stranger to sickbay, has turned into a black hole on offense.
Throw all those advanced stats into the blender, and FiveThirtyEight project Portland to win Friday’s game by 4.5 points. That leaves us with a bit less than our preferred 2-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA lines, but a slight lean and a small bet on the Blazers at –3 makes sense here – don’t forget about all that juicy small-market value they bring to the table.
Hail Portlandia~!
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers –3 (–110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.