For the second consecutive season, the Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for their playoff lives before the Western Conference Finals. It’s actually much worse than that this time around, as they find themselves one loss away from being eliminated in the first round. This series has been all over the place with the road team winning every game so far so let’s break this game down to see if we can find some value.
Friday, June 04, 2021 – 09:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
After losing the first two games at home, the Clippers looked like they made the necessary adjustments on the road to come home in Game 5 and take control of the series. Instead they did what the Clippers have become known for in the playoffs and that’s underachieving. It’s really hard to explain what happened in Game 5 after the adjustments that Ty Lue made in games 3 and 4 worked so well. He identified that Patrick Beverly and Ivaca Zubac were defensive liabilities against Luka Doncic.
They replaced them in the starting lineup with Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum and it seemed to have the desired effect. Jackson was making Luka at least have to think about playing defense, something he did not have to worry about with Beverly on the court. Also by bringing in Batum instead of Zubac, he now had a bunch of wings that could switch and not be in an obvious mismatch situation like was the case when Zubac was on the floor.
Well, that all went up in smoke in Game 5 on their home floor and it’s hard to understand why. One thing is clear: they can forget about stopping Luka Doncic. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are supposed to be two of the best wing defenders in the NBA. Well, either Luka is showing us his all time greatness at the age of 22 or those two are not the defenders they used to be.
There are several factors that have me looking at the Under as my best bet. These are two of the slowest paced teams in the league. I’d be hard pressed to think they will be speeding things up in a do or die situation. A few of the games in this series were played at ridiculously slow paces and I think that’s the case again tonight. From Dallas’ perspective, their best player plays a slow and methodical style. Also, they are nowhere near as big or athletic as the Clippers so they have to do what they do best: put Doncic in favorable positions and let the opponent choose between doubling him or leaving a wide open shooter.
I also think that Dallas’ shooters have to regress back to the mean to some extent. In their three wins, Dallas has shot 46 percent from three on 35 attempts per game. They even shot over 50% (20-39) in their Game 3 loss. The Mavs have only shot badly from three in one out of the five games and I just don’t think they can continue to shoot at that pace. I think the Clippers do a much better job on everyone not named Luka and this game finishes Under 216.5.
NBA Pick: Under 216.5 (-110) at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.