Clippers vs. Nuggets Free NBA Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Denver Nuggets are coming off getting blasted by the Utah Jazz on Sunday and after a long layover, now they welcome the Los Angeles Clippers to town. We have you covered from every angle of this matchup to help you make the right NBA pick. Let’s dig in.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, January 19, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Ball Arena
Third Time’s the Charm
This will be the third meeting between these two teams and both of their previous meetings were super low-scoring. The first one saw the Nuggets edged the Clippers by three points 103-100 in L.A., in a game where the Nuggets held the Clippers to only 17 fourth-quarter points.
The most recent meeting just over a week ago was even lower scoring, with the Clippers edging out the Nuggets by two points 87-85 at home. Now, the season series shifts to Denver, and the NBA odds board have the Nuggets as -8 favorites with a total of 214 points. I’m not sure if the books are watching the same games as we are, but 214 points is a lot of points with how these two teams have played one another so far this season and lately.
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In their first two matchups, both teams have sported an offensive and defensive rating lower than 98 points per 100 possessions. Furthermore, this is a great spot for both teams on the under. L.A. has been abysmal on offense over their last five games, posting an offensive rating of 106.6, which ranks 25th in the league over that stretch.
While L.A. may be getting some help back tonight with Luke Kennard being questionable, it won’t be enough to score more than 105 points against this Nuggets team.
The Sharp Pick
The main reason for this is that I expect the Nuggets to come out hot on defense since their blowout loss and combined with the Clippers’ recent play, the Nuggets’ recent rest, and Denver’s overall home defense, this one should be low scoring again.
In their last five first halves, the Clippers are averaging just 96.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Nuggets are allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions over that same five-game stretch of first halves. Denver is 5-4 cashing the under this season when they have 2-3 days off and with the rest advantage this year they are 6-4 cashing the under. The Clippers have also been an under-cashing machine in conference games, posting a record of 20-12 cashing the under against the West.
The Clippers’ metrics in conference games confirm this, as they are 28th in defensive rating in conference games, and in road conference games they are averaging just 103.5 points per 100 possessions.
L.A.’s defense is still very good though and that will be their saving grace tonight if they stay in this game. However, with revenge and bouncing back on their minds, I expect the Nuggets to come out aggressive and tuned up on defense. Considering the Clippers are 11-4 cashing the under in road conference games, 214 points are simply too many for a game where the first team to 105 points may win it.
NBA Pick: Under 214 (-112) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.