After two weeks, Cincinnati remains one of the most underrated top programs in the country. While perennial powerhouses have struggled to beat lackluster opponents, the Bearcats have remained dominant so far this season. Can Cincy cover the spread vs. Indiana?
Saturday, September 18, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
After two weeks, Cincinnati remains one of the most underrated top programs in the country. While perennial powerhouses have struggled to beat lackluster opponents, the Bearcats have remained dominant so far this season.
Cincinnati has scored over 40 points in each of their first two games this season, but they have both been against opponents outside of the Power 5. This week, they’ll play against the Indiana Hoosiers as they prepare for an upcoming battle against Notre Dame.
Indiana may be in the Big Ten, but they’ve struggled so far this year. They had a solid 2020 campaign, but they lost their season opener against Iowa. They could have a massive momentum swing if they beat the Bearcats, but can they?
Despite playing on the road, NCAAF odds favor the Bearcats by 3.5 points. Cincinnati has a great offense, but this will be a true test on the road. Indiana needs to right the ship, and Cincinnati needs to prove that they’re a true contender in the College Football Playoff.
Here are keys and a pick for this week’s game.
While you could break down this game from a football IQ standpoint and discuss strategy, something else matters first. Before you can worry about how the team executes, you have to worry about the mindset going into the week.
Cincinnati has a program-defining game against Notre Dame next week. A win there could be enough to put them in the College Football Playoff. With how the Fighting Irish are playing, the Bearcats might even be favored in that game.
However, that is a dangerous situation for Cincinnati. That could turn this game into a trap for them. None of the future matters if they lose this week. They have to remain focused if they want to win this game and cover the spread.
On offense, look for Jerome Ford to wear down the Indiana defense. He’s been a bruiser since transferring from Alabama, and he is a quality back for Cincinnati. His impact in the first half will make things easier for Cincinnati as the game progresses. Watch out for him to have a great game this Saturday.
Look for Indiana to get the crowd involved early. They aren’t known for their home-field advantage, but they can still get rowdy when things go their way. After all, this will be one of the biggest home games for the Hoosiers this season. Despite the early kickoff, look for explosive plays early to see if the crowd can carry momentum for the home team.
Indiana needs to stack the box to stop Jerome Ford. Desmond Ridder isn’t known for his running ability, but he can make a play in space as well. Stacking the box would force him to win with his arm. He’s capable of doing this, but it is the toughest path to a victory.
This is going to be a hard game for Indiana, but they are capable of winning outright. Emotions will be running high as they enter a must-win game, but they need to turn that energy into production. If it turns into nerves, the Hoosiers will fail to cover the spread. This would essentially end their season before they play teams like Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan.
With the stakes and keys settled, here is a prediction for Saturday.
Cincinnati is a genuine College Football Playoff contender. Regardless of how other teams do, they have the offense and the schedule to compete. However, this needs to be a statement win.
The Bearcats know what’s at stake in this game. They are too disciplined to let this become a trap game. They will carry their momentum into Indiana and win a tough game on the road.
In terms of value, I would make the Bearcats my NCAAF pick to cover the spread. Indiana’s offense has too many questions, and Cincinnati is capable of winning this game by a large margin. They should win by more than a field goal, which is already enough to cover.
NCAAF Pick: Cincinnati -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.