Top NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The AFC Championship Game is the 1st playoff matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, a pair of likely 2-time MVP winners. It is a game between the top 2 scoring defenses, it may rain, but the offenses are still expected to put on a show as all of their past matchups produced over 50.5 points.
We dug through the top-rated online sportsbooks to find our favorite NFL odds for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
There is a real chance the Ravens will look at what the Bills did to Kansas City’s defense last week and try to emulate a lot of it.
Josh Allen scored 2 rushing touchdowns, 1 scramble, and another by design. Lamar Jackson just had his own game with 2 designed touchdown runs against the Texans.
In fact, most of his big plays against Houston were runs, as he ran for 100 yards and only passed for 152 yards. The Chiefs have a better defense overall and certainly a better pass defense than Houston, so running is something Jackson should have to do in this game.
When Jackson last played the Chiefs in 2021, he scored 2 rushing touchdowns in that game as well. He also scored a rushing touchdown against the Chiefs in their 2019 meeting, so he has 3 scores in 4 games on the ground against them.
The Ravens do like Gus Edwards in the red zone, but Jackson has the ability to score from further out as he showed last week. The best call this week could be calling Jackson’s number to run it himself instead of trying to challenge these corners in the red zone.
The Pick
Running quarterbacks have given the Chiefs problems in playoff games recently.
Allen had 2 rushing touchdowns last week and Jalen Hurts had 3 scores in last year’s Super Bowl for Philadelphia. Those quarterbacks run it in more often than Jackson does, but he has shown he is more than capable of doing the same. We’ll trust him to get at least one in the biggest game of his career.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) at Bovada
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
This number keeps going down, but it gets more tempting with each drop.
The concern for Patrick Mahomes is not the Baltimore defense. It is another game like last week or the Philadelphia Super Bowl, where the opponent hogs the ball for over 35 minutes, limiting his time with the ball and the number of possessions he has to work with.
That’s what the Bills did last week when they held the ball for over 37 minutes, so Mahomes finished with just 215 passing yards. But he was very efficient, completing 17-of-23 passes and finding 3 deep completions.
In his playoff career, Mahomes has passed for at least 255 yards in 13-of-16 games, but he has not surpassed 215 yards in 3-of-5 games over the last 2 postseasons. Some of that was missing a quarter for his high-ankle sprain against Jacksonville last year, and some was the aforementioned time-of-possession deficits against the Eagles and Bills.
But there is also a chance the Ravens do not repeat what the Bills did as their offense could be more volatile. Josh Allen did not take a sack last week while Lamar Jackson is more likely to do so against a strong pass rush.
Jackson is also more likely to rip off a 20-yard scramble, or complete a big play as the Bills did not have any play gain over 18 yards last week. The Buffalo receivers have been in a funk to end the season and Gabe Davis was inactive. The Ravens have some big playmakers in Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and Isaiah Likely.
The Pick
So, what we are getting at is the Ravens should not have as many long drives as the Bills had, giving Mahomes more chances with the ball. Lest we forget, Mahomes has shredded the Ravens in his career, throwing for at least 340 yards in all 4 of his meetings with them.
This is probably the best Baltimore defense he has faced, but he is also easily the best quarterback this defense will see this year. No matter the rain or caliber of defense, we trust Mahomes to do what he can to get the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl, and we want his over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Gus Edwards (Baltimore Ravens)
As mentioned in the Jackson pick, we do expect a fair share of running from the Ravens in this game, especially if the conditions are wet.
The nice thing about Gus Edwards is his consistency.
He has rushed for over 43.5 yards in 11-of-18 games this year, and he came very close in a few other games with 40 and 41 yards.
The Ravens have lost J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell to injuries this year, so Edwards remains the lead back along with Justice Hill and newcomer Dalvin Cook. But Edwards is still the reliable one in the backfield, and a key strategy to face the Chiefs is to limit possessions for Mahomes and keep that clock running with good runs.
The Bills did this so well for 3 quarters last week with Dalvin’s brother, James, rushing for 61 yards, and backup Ty Johnson also had 40 yards. But a couple of stuffed runs in the 4th quarter changed everything for the game.
The Pick
The Ravens run the ball better than Buffalo and will utilize Edwards enough to where he should be able to clear 43.5 yards.
The Chiefs are not the high-flying passing team they were in 2018-21 when they shredded the Ravens, so this game should always be within reach, and we know the Ravens aren’t going to just abandon the run.
NFL Pick: Gus Edwards Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-130) at Bovada
Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)
This matchup has been brewing for months and the scare for the Chiefs always has been the thought of their mistake-prone wide receivers going into Baltimore to take on this top-ranked defense.
But rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, if not their best receiver to target period. Rice leads the Chiefs with 9.2 yards per target, outdoing Travis Kelce (8.1).
Rice was a little banged up last week in Buffalo, but he finished the game and should be fine. He had 47 yards, ending his streak of consecutive games with over 125 yards. Rice has gone over 60 yards in 8 games this season. He has done it in 6-of-8 games going into Sunday.
The Pick
The Ravens have a great defense, but it is far from invincible. The Ravens have already allowed 17 receivers to hit 60 yards this year, including Nico Collins (68 yards) last week for Houston. Rookies Puka Nacua (84 yards) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63 yards) also broke 60 yards against this defense in Baltimore this year.
If you are Mahomes, are you going to trust the likes of Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or are you going to rely on Rice to get the job done? He can catch short throws and make them into first downs too. This has to be a big game for him if the Chiefs are going to have success. Worst-case scenario, they get down big and he hits the over in catch-up mode.
NFL Pick: Rashee Rice Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Bovada
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