Celtics vs. Heat NBA Picks and Predictions (Archive)
The Miami Heat will have a nice advantage Thursday night when they host Boston as the Celtics will be playing their second game in 24 hours. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Thursday, November 04, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at FTX Arena
Five games on the NBA schedule Thursday, and Celtics-Heat is the first of an NBA TV doubleheader, with Rockets-Suns as the late game.
It’s the first of three meetings this season between Boston and Miami and the only trip to south Florida for the Celtics.
Last season, Miami won the series 2-1 but lost the lone home game 107-105 on a Payton Pritchard putback with two-tenths of a second left off a Marcus Smart missed layup. Jayson Tatum scored 27 points and Jaylen Brown had 21 for the Celtics, who blew a 10-point lead in the final minute before winning. Jimmy Butler had 26 points for Miami.
Including playoffs, the Celtics and Heat have split 48 games at FTX Arena (formerly called AmericanAirlines Arena). Miami is 7-3 against the spread on the NBA odds in the past 10 meetings overall.
Are Celtics Fixed?
The Celtics had a historically bad loss on Monday to Chicago, leading by 14 points entering the fourth quarter and somehow losing by 14, and afterward, Marcus Smart called out All-Star teammates Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for not passing more and playing too much isolation offense.
The team then called a players’-only meeting before flying to Orlando for Wednesday’s game. A loss there against the terrible Magic, and we might have been looking at an implosion.
However, Boston (3-5) routed the Magic 92-79 – beating Orlando doesn’t fix anything.
Brown had 28 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists, and Tatum just 14 points with 6 rebounds and 3 assists, so it’s not like those guys did pass more, at least resulting in more assists. Al Horford added 12 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists. Boston had 24 assists on 33 made field goals, which is pretty good. All five of the Celtics’ starters finished with a plus/minus rating of at least plus-12.
It was the first time the Celtics allowed fewer than 80 points since Dec. 8, 2018, but, again, consider the competition. Orlando was 9-for-43 from deep.
"It’s something we probably didn’t need," Brown said of Smart’s comments. "I’m open to any and everything when guys bring it to me, coaching staff ... It felt good to get a win today, but ... At the end of the day, it’s all about finding ways to win, and that’s what the conversation was about."
Boston is 2-8 against the spread at BMR’s top-rated books following a win.
Good Luck Cooling Down Heat
Miami (6-1) looks like the best team in the Eastern Conference so far but is a +550 third-favorite behind the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks to win the East on the BetOnline NBA futures odds.
Led by stalwart defenders Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, the Heat have the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA at 97.9 points per possession and also lead in points allowed at 98.9. Their lone loss was in overtime at Indiana on Oct. 23.
Miami comes off an impressive 125-110 win in Dallas on Tuesday, the team’s fifth straight win. Adebayo was in some question with a minor injury but had 22 points and 13 rebounds. He was one of four Heat players with at least 22 points, joining Tyler Herro (25 off the bench), Butler (23), and Kyle Lowry (22). With the addition of Lowry, this might be the deepest team in the NBA.
Herro is playing as he did in the bubble in the summer of 2020 rather than the guy who struggled last season. He has scored 22 points or more in five of seven games so far and his 157 points are the most a reserve has scored in the first seven games of a season since Ricky Pierce scored 170 in 1989-90.
The Heat is only going to be that much better when former All-Star guard Victor Oladipo is back from his right knee injury, but that won’t be until the New Year. Last season playing for the Pacers, Houston Rockets, and Heat, he averaged 19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game, but his season was cut short due to knee surgery.
The Heat are 13-3-1 ATS on NBA odds in their past 17 as favorites. I might like the total a bit better than the side here because Miami is so good on defense.
NBA Pick: Under 216.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
NBA Pick: Heat -7 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.