Cavaliers vs. Hawks Free NBA Picks for February 15 (Archive)
The Cavaliers and Hawks meet in Atlanta. Here is betting advice for the game. Top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s game between Cleveland and Atlanta. The Cavaliers and Hawks are both a bit removed from where they want to be.
Cleveland is two games back of the Miami Heat for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta, meanwhile, would like to secure some breathing room as it occupies the last spot for the Play-In Tournament by the thinnest of margins. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for this game.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tuesday, February 15, 2022 – 7:30 PM EST at State Farm Arena
Cleveland's Defense
Any conversation about this year's Cleveland Cavaliers will probably revolve around the aptitude of their defense. To be fair, defense is a significant reason for Cleveland's improved record this year. But defense is a sweeping term. There are many aspects of defense that the Cavaliers excel at.
An "over" or a play on the Hawks will rely on Atlanta's offense finding ways to underscore the respects in which Cleveland's defense is not so strong. Defensively, the Cavaliers are arguably best at protecting the rim. Even when their "tall-ball" lineup isn't ideally stocked -- Lauri Markkanen is currently injured with a sprained ankle -- the Cavs are anchored by strong rim-protecting duo Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
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With these guys, the Cavs allow the lowest field-goal percentage within five feet of the basket. While a high-scoring output of Atlanta will depend on exposing weaknesses in the Cavalier defense, a strong defensive effort from Cleveland will rely on its opponent being dependent on scoring within five feet of the basket.
Atlanta's Shot Profile
Unfortunately for the Cavalier defense and its strong rim-protecting personnel, the Hawks are not the kind of group that relies on scoring at the basket. They rank in the bottom half in field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Instead of attacking the hoop, they show a stronger proclivity for mid-range jump shots.
Moreover, especially at home, they attempt more three-pointers. They attempt 2.3 more of them per game in Atlanta.
Ball-Screen Defense
Furthermore, and possibly most significantly, Cleveland's ball-screen defense is problematic. A defense's ability against a play type is aptly measured by PPP (points per possession) because the 'points allowed' total can misrepresent a defense's ability against a play type by not accounting for its ratio of success.
The Cavaliers allow the ninth-most PPP against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type. They are thus one of the worst teams at defending against this play type.
Atlanta's Ball-Screen Game and The Mid-Range
Offensively, Atlanta is most well-known for its ball-screen game featuring superstar point guard Trae Young. Young has developed great chemistry with Hawk center Clint Capela. This chemistry is evident, for example, in the lobs that Young locates at the basket for Capela to throw down.
He'll also slither his way inside the paint and score himself by knocking down a floater. However, as shot-type percentages show, he was more likely to attempt floaters in previous years. This year, he has made a concerted effort to reduce the frequency with which he attempts floaters.
Instead, Young is attempting more mid-range jump shots. As evident by percentile, Young has been superbly efficient especially with his longer mid-range shot attempts. Young is also pulling up for three-point shot attempts. He is shooting with a career-best 37.5-percent efficiency from deep.
These developments in the Hawk star's shot profile reflect Atlanta's ability to score in the areas that the Cavs are less able to defend well.
Atlanta's Defense
Offensively, the Cavs will not shoot a lot of threes. This is especially true away from Cleveland where they attempt a paltry 31.9 three-pointers per game. They will therefore struggle against a defense that forces them to live behind the arc. Atlanta, though, is not such a team. Instead of being stronger defending inside the arc, the Hawks rank in the bottom half at limiting the opponent's field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Caris LeVert
Before the trade deadline, Cleveland made a significant move to boost its backcourt depth and quality. This move -- acquiring former Pacer Caris LeVert -- was opportunistic because of the strong season that the Cavs are enjoying. They wanted to make up for the loss of injured guard Collin Sexton.
Part of what Sexton did well got to the basket. LeVert, like a fellow guard and team-leading scorer Darius Garland, loves to drive to the basket. The former Pacer will not get to the basket with his first step.
Instead, he'll wiggle his way to the basket, changing pace to throw off defenders and using his strength to will his way inside. While LeVert's drive total per game is notably high, Garland's is right behind LeVert's.
Garland has a nicer first step and is shifty when driving to the basket. Both players benefit from the presence of constant lob threats Allen and Mobley. If these guards don't score themselves, then they can find their teammates.
They'll need to do a lot of scoring and find themselves to offset the defensive downgrade that LeVert brings with him. Statistically speaking, Indiana's defense was worse with LeVert on the court. For the above reasons, bet on the "over" with your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Over 221 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.