The way St. Louis and Los Angeles have come down the stretch, the winner of the NL Wild Card would seem to have a legitimate chance to advance to the World Series if they can stay hot. Fascinating Hump Day winner-take-all showdown.
Five weeks ago, this was an inconceivable matchup. St. Louis was a floundering team who spent 80 percent of the season playing absolutely average baseball. Then the Cardinals got hot. Make that red hot, no, white-hot, better yet, scorched earth hot. St. Louis won an amazing 17 in a row and 19 of 20 and they will fear nobody at this point.
The L.A. Dodgers, all they have done is go 43-13 since August 1 and they only picked up two games in that unbelievable stretch against San Francisco and are left with an unenviable task. Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) has Los Angeles at -220 MLB odds for this Wild Card clash, with a total of 7.5. After the Dodgers season, all the pressure is on them to advance.
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 – 8:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
St. Louis will need a masterful effort from ageless Adam Wainwright (17-7, 3.05 ERA). On June 1st Wainwright was 3-4 with an acceptable 4.22 ERA, which wasn’t bad for a soon-to-be 40-year-old hurler as his team’s 5th starter. Then, Wainwright turned back the clock and he and his teammates went 18-4 from that point forward.
The Cardinals offense only averaged 4.4 runs a game, which was 20th in the majors. What changed for them in September is that everyone got hot. That included studs like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, but there were major contributions from Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, who helped turn this into a 90-win team.
Those who watched St. Louis every day marveled how the defense and bullpen improved so dramatically after being run off the mill for so much of the season. The Redbirds remind us of the 2007 Colorado Rockies who parlayed a scintillating September into a World Series appearance.
Los Angeles was fourth in scoring in the majors and tops in the National League at 5.1 RPG. Manager Dave Roberts, despite not having three-fifths of his original starting rotation for a good chunk of the season (Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, and Trevor Bauer), still managed to have the best team in the big leagues in run prevention at 3.9 RPG.
The addition of Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46) was a monumental trade and if L.A. can survive this contest, having Mad Max, Walker Buehler, and Jose Urias, is a way to go into any series.
The Dodgers have a lineup that is bananas, which is our way of saying they can score in bunches by base hits or home runs. Subtracting Max Muncy, one of their most consistent hitters is not positive, but this team has enough depth and versatility to overcome that, at least in the short term.
For MLB picks, the first thing you notice is both starting pitchers have ERAs over 5.00 in their last three starts. Is that an anomaly or a precursor of what is next? It is advantageous for St. Louis to keep this a tight, low-scoring affair because that keeps the pressure on L.A. who is a large favorite.
Though Scherzer can toss seven shutout innings in any game, he’s also known for being too keyed up and will give the long ball. For years in baseball circles, opposing teams have realized Wainwright has command issues sometimes in the first inning or two.
If he survives, he’s usually good for at least six solid innings. Look for Dodgers’ hitters to be aggressive early in counts if Wainwright’s pitches look like strikes, hoping to lift a mistake. The Cards are an excellent 45-36 on the road, which was 7th-best in that category. The Dodgers had the best home record at 58-23 this year and are 5-1 at Chavez Ravine over St. Louis since 2019.
Of course an upset is possible, still, L.A. is 29-6 in home games after two or more consecutive wins this season and advances.
MLB Picks: Dodgers -220 with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.