For the first time in decades, the NHL’s best rivalry will see a playoff matchup as the Montreal Canadiens visit the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 1 of their series on Thursday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Thursday, May 20, 2021 – 07:30 PM ET – at Scotiabank Arena
An argument can be made that a handful of rivalries are the best in Major League Baseball (Yankees-Red Sox, Cubs-Cardinals, Giants-Dodgers, etc.), the NFL (Packers-Bears, Steelers-Ravens, Giants-Cowboys, etc.) or the NBA (Lakers-Celtics, Bulls-Knicks, etc.) but I’m sorry there isn’t any question what the NHL’s best is: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs. The two Original Six clubs meet in Game 1 of their North Division playoff series on Thursday in Toronto. CBC has the national TV broadcast.
Now, one would think these teams meet all the time in the postseason. Wrong. Rather amazingly, they haven’t since 1979. I honestly don’t know how that’s possible -- not like they play in separate conferences. The Leafs haven’t beaten the Canadiens in a postseason game since May 2, 1967 when Toronto clinched the Stanley Cup with a Game 6 home victory. Canada has not relaxed the allowance of fans at sporting events yet, so there will be none in the first five games of this series, although 2,500 will be allowed starting in Game 6 in Montreal on May 29 if it goes that far.This year, the home team has won five of the past six meetings on the NHL picks. The under is 4-1-1 in those six.
Montreal is arguably the worst team in the postseason field as the Canadiens finished fourth in the North Division with just 59 points while having a minus-9 goal differential. The Dallas Stars and New York Rangers both had more points and a positive goal differential but were stuck in other, better divisions and didn’t make the postseason. The last team from Canada to win a Stanley Cup was Montreal in 1993, but this team isn’t coming close to that. On the Bovada NHL futures odds, the Habs are +750 long shots to simply win the North Division playoff, +2800 to make the Cup Finals and +5500 to win it all.
The Canadiens haven’t played since May 12 when they lost their fifth game in a row, 4-3 in OT at home to Edmonton. The North Division playoffs started late because the Flames and Canucks had to finish their regular-season schedule – Vancouver’s got all messy due to COVID.
The good news is that all that time off allowed top goaltender Carey Price and perhaps the team’s best forward, Brendan Gallagher, to get healthy. Price hadn’t played in an NHL game since April 19 when he collided with Oilers forward Alex Chiasson. Gallagher broke his right thumb when he blocked a shot by teammate Alexander Romanov against the Oilers on April 5. Both did play in an AHL game Monday. Top blueliner Shea Weber will also play Thursday; he had been out since April 28.
Montreal was 3-7 this season vs. the Leafs and 1-4 in Toronto. Defenseman Jeff Petry led Montreal with 10 points (all assists) in the season series. Nick Suzuki had eight points (four goals). Gallagher played in just four of the games. Price also played in four and was 1-2-1 with a 3.48 GAA and .868 SV. He will start the opener even though Jake Allen (2.66 GAA) was better vs. Toronto this year. The Canadiens are 1-7 on the NHL odds in their past eight Thursday games and 1-5 in their past six on the road.
Toronto has the longest Cup drought in the NHL with that last title coming in 1967. Shoot, the Leafs haven’t won a series since way back in 2004. However, this team can win it all with the right breaks and if the Leafs don’t have to relocate to a U.S. city for the final four and Stanley Cup Finals – they will have to if Canada doesn’t allow U.S. teams to cross the border in those later rounds. To win the North Division playoff, the Leafs are -135 favorites, and I believe they will do so. They are +225 at the top-rated sportsbooks to reach the Stanley Cup Finals and +600 to win it. Colorado and Tampa might be better, but perhaps that’s it and maybe those two clubs are eliminated before Toronto faces them.
Auston Matthews won the Rocket Richard Trophy this year as the NHL’s top goal-scorer with 41 – no one else had more than 33. He finished with 66 points, one fewer than teammate Mitchell Marner. Toronto was without No. 1 netminder Frederik Andersen for a large chunk of the season due to injury, but Jack Campbell shined in his absence, going 17-3-2 with a 2.15 GAA and .921 SV. Campbell will start Game 1. He was 4-1-1 with a 2.16 GAA and .917 SV in six starts vs. Montreal. Matthews led the Leafs with 14 points (seven goals) in the series and was plus-6. Marner had 11 points (four goals) and was plus-5. The Leafs are 11-4 on NHL picks in their past 15 games on at least three days of rest and 4-0 in their past four at home overall. They take Game 1.
NHL Pick: Toronto at -197 with BetOnline