Canadiens (+209)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 5 Preview (Archive)
Can the Montreal Canadiens live for another day in the Stanley Cup Finals? They forced the issue in game 4 and finally cracked the win column in Monday’s victory at the Bell Centre in Montreal to the delight of their adoring fans. But they’re nevertheless down 1-3 in the series and staring at the face of ultimate defeat. Simply put, it’s an uphill battle and a tough ask against the defending champions Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Lightning are in the driver’s seat, one win away from hoisting the Stanley Cup for a second straight season. They failed at the time of asking in the last game but they get another chance to get the job done today. And do it importantly in front of a full-house of their beloved fans at the Amelie Arena, who were denied the thrill and celebration of their win last year when the NHL playoffs were conducted under the protective umbrella of host hub cities in Canada and most of the country was still in some form or other of lockdown or widespread pandemic-mandated restrictions.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 – 8:00 PM ET at Amelie Arena
Game 5 Betting Odds & Lines
As it currently stands, the Lightning are predictably the firm faves across multiple top sports betting sites to win game 5. Depending on the sportsbook in question, the money line odds range from -225 to -244 or thereabouts. But the interesting bit here is that while bookies favour the Lightning, the public appears to be leaning towards the Canadiens in the betting.
Montreal’s odds are pegged anywhere from +195 to +209 on the NHL odds board and they’re conspicuously the consensus NHL pick, in spite of the odds that are stacked against them. Evidently, the public is high on another upset in this series.
Montreal Win Game 4
For the first three games, the Canadiens struggled to strike an audible chord in this series. They were steamrolled 5-1 in the first game, stifled 3-1 in the second and decimated 6-3 in the third. Whatever they did proved insufficient and they were outclassed, outplayed and outmuscled thoroughly.
Thus, the sum total of their account in the lead up to game 4, which combined for a lopsided 14-5 score-line, didn’t augur promisingly. Certainly, it set up the Lightning for a clean sweep of the series – what would have been an ignominious ending to Montreal’s inspired playoff campaign – and stacked the NHL odds against Montreal in the betting quite significantly for game 4.
Somehow though the Canadiens were able to win the previous game and avoid the sweep by the Lightning. Montreal winger Josh Anderson did promise the Canadiens weren’t going to take it lying down though. In his pre-game presser, Anderson emphatically stated that "everyone’s going to be ready … I can tell you that." And then he added in parting, “We’re not finished yet.”
And so, the Habs weren’t as they extended their magical postseason run for at least one more game with an exhilarating overtime win that sent fans at the Bell Centre into a right tizzy and fans across Montreal city and a hockey-mad Canada into undisguised joy and elation.
Josh Anderson went on to score twice in the game, including a spectacular overtime goal that gave Montreal the 3-2 victory in Game 4.
“We didn’t want to end it tonight in front of our fans," Anderson said. "We expected to go to Tampa tomorrow. I think everybody in that locker room did, and we packed our bags this afternoon. We just had that feeling that we were going to win tonight.”
It was without a doubt Montreal’s best game of the series. For the first time they scored first and twice they had the lead in the game before the Lightning levelled to send the game into overtime. Things got off to a shaky start in extra time as the Canadiens were faced with defending a four-minute powerplay but their superb defending proved to be decisive.
Lightning Look To Get Job Done
The Lightning allowed a rare opportunity to sweep the Montreal Canadiens slip through their fingers in game 4. It was one of their worst performances in the postseason and in this series, and they paid the price for it. However, on the bright side, they’re still up 3-1 in this series and they have two more cracks with the advantage at the very least (should they need so many) to finish the job comfortably.
"No hanging our heads," Lightning coach Jon Cooper said at the end of game 4. "I like a lot of things we did tonight."
"That was a close game overall," Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman said in his post-game presser. "They were playing for their lives and they really brought it.”
Looking ahead to game 5, the Lightning must be wary of the Canadiens because they’ve been here before in the first round of the playoffs when they turned things around against the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the last three games of the best-of-seven series to advance.
By all accounts, the expectation is that the Lightning will clinch the series ultimately and possibly in game 5 with their fans conveniently on hand to savour the moment first-hand. And underscoring that notion is the fact that the odds are in Tampa Bay’s favour literally and figuratively: they’re the odds makers’ fave for game 5 and in futures betting to win the Stanley Cup and historically only four NHL teams have a won a series after losing the first three games.
NHL Predictions and Picks
For those NHL bettors looking to bet on the Lightning, the money line odds are a bit too steep and are best avoided. At almost -250 odds to win, betting on the Lightning will cost 2.5 times the potential return, which is a pricey risk that only – let’s face it – those with silly money to play with might be able to afford easily. Instead, look towards the puckline that offers better betting value if you’re confident the Lightning will get the job done tonight.
For those that are itching for another upset in the Stanley Cup playoffs, if only to get one more game to enjoy in the postseason, taking the Canadiens on the moneyline is quite tempting. The Canadiens are a tough lot and they’ll be up for the challenge against the Lightning at the Amelie Arena tonight. However, it’s a longshot bet, make no mistake about it, because it would be an even greater achievement to upset the Lightning on the road than it was to do it at the Bell Centre on Monday.
The total for this game is set to 5 with most top sportsbooks and the OVER is the favoured outcome across the board as well. To be fair, this game could go either way given the previous four games featured no less than four goals. Typically, deeper into the series, games become defensive battles and that could see this game fall under 5 as Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy square off again. That said, the firepower with both teams and the pressure of the occasion could see this game go over 5 quite easily as well.
All told, there’s a ton of betting value depending on which way one slices this game for NHL picks. Tampa Bay are likely to win and that makes them the smart bet. Montreal could throw a spanner in the works and that makes them the tempting – if risky – bet. It’s a tossup, but a small wager on the Montreal Canadiens on the money-line might not go amiss.
NHL Pick: Canadiens (+209) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.