Going into the season, the San Diego Padres were projected to win around 95 games and make the playoffs as a wild card team. If the Padres played in any other division other than the NL West, then they would be favored to win the division. However, the friars are overshadowed by their big brother, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The LA Dodgers currently have a 15-7 which over the course of a full 162-game season would equate to a 110-52 record. Last year, Los Angeles won the world series, and this year they are World Series favorites yet again as they have returned most of their roster and even made improvements during free agency.
Last season the Padres finished the shortened season with a 37-23 record which is equivalent to a 100-62 record over the course of a full season. With San Diego acquiring starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the offseason, the perception is that they are almost as good as the Dodgers.
Currently the Padres have a 13-11 record which looks weak from a distance. However, seven of their 24 games have come against the Dodgers. With 29.2% of San Diego’s games against LA, San Diego’s win percentage is depressed from their seven games against LA. Even in those seven games, San Diego is 4-3 against Los Angeles this season. Over the course of a full season, they should win 90-95 games, the question is if that will be good enough to win the National League Pennant.
For the Padres to win the NL Pennant, they must make the playoffs as a Wild Card or a Division Winner. If the Padres make the playoffs as a Wild Card, then they must win a play-in game. After winning the play-in game, San Diego must win the NLDS and NLCS. If the friars win the NL West division, then they get to skip the play-in game.
According to prediction site FiveThirtyEight, the Padres have a 75% chance of making the playoffs. If you are betting on San Diego winning the division this is good news. The bad news for Padres backers is that they only have a 16% chance of winning the NL West according to FiveThirtyEight’s projections.
If San Diego makes the playoffs as a wild card team, then they are a bad pick to win the NL Pennant at only +500 odds. The Padres would have to win a play-in game and then a five-game series in the NLDS likely against the LA Dodgers.
San Diego may have a winning record against Los Angeles for now, but Los Angeles still is the best team. Then if the Padres beat the Dodgers, they must beat the winner of the other NLDS in a best-of-seven games series. That is why the Padres are a bad bet to win the National League Pennant.
National League Pennant Pick: No Pick
With the Dodgers being the biggest obstacle for the Padres, the best way to bet on the Padres is to bet on them winning the NL West division. Currently the Padres are +400 underdogs to win their division which is only a slightly lower payout than their NL pennant odds. If the Padres do well in their remaining 12 regular season games against the Dodgers, and/or the Dodgers have injuries than the Padres have a plausible chance of winning the division.
MLB Pick: San Diego Padres to win NL West Division +400 at Bovada