The Milwaukee Bucks have disappointed in the playoffs the past two seasons. How will they fare this year? Here’s our answer along with NBA futures odds at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
The Milwaukee Bucks earned the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and will face the No. 6 Miami Heat in Round 1 – with a start date TBA. The Bucks will be solid favorites at BMR’s top-rated books on the series line. To win the East, which it has never done, Milwaukee is a +330 third-favorite behind Brooklyn (-115) and Philadelphia (+325). Bovada has an interesting prop on the stage the Bucks are eliminated: Lose in first round is +170, lose in conference semifinals is +180, lose in conference finals is +425, lose in NBA Finals is +600 and win it all is +900.
Wait, you may say, didn’t the Bucks win an NBA title back in 1971? So they must have won the East before? Nope, Milwaukee was a Western Conference club back then. Milwaukee was 2-1 vs. the Heat this season. They split two very early-season matchups and then the Bucks won 122-108 at home on Saturday. Khris Middleton and Bryn Forbes each scored 21 points to lead Milwaukee. Superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo was held to 15 points. Miami didn’t have leading scorer Jimmy Butler due to lower back tightness; in fact, he didn’t play in any of the Bucks games. The Heat lost despite shooting 22 of 49 from 3-point range and tying a franchise record for 3-point baskets in a game.
If chalk holds, the winner of this series would face the star-studded and No. 2 seed Brooklyn Nets, who are the +220 favorites to win the NBA title. Had Brooklyn lost earlier Sunday vs. Cleveland, the Bucks could have earned the No. 2 seed. Alas, the Cavs were routed.
There is some speculation floating around that the Bucks might fire very successful coach Mike Budenholzer if they don’t have a long postseason run. The past two seasons, the Bucks had the NBA’s best regular-season record. However, after taking a 2-0 lead in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Toronto, the Bucks lost the next four. Last year in the Orlando bubble, Milwaukee was ousted by these Heat in five games. It didn’t help matters that Giannis Antetokounmpo got hurt early in Game 4, but that was also the only game Milwaukee won. The Heat were the better team even when Giannis played. They have two really good defenders to help slow him down in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Milwaukee finished this regular season as the highest scoring team in franchise history at 120.2 ppg and led the league in scoring for the third straight season. The Bucks were the first team since the Denver Nuggets in 1984-85 (120.0 ppg) to average at least 120.0 points per game. Antetokounmpo finished with averages of 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists and joined Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson (1960-63) as the only players in NBA history to average at least 25.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists for three straight seasons.
Fellow Bucks All-Star Khris Middleton averaged 20.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and a career-high 5.4 assists per game. He was one of only five players to average 20/5/5 and shooting better than 40% from three-point range in the league this year. Middleton didn’t play in Sunday’s finale due to a minor injury, but the game was meaningless and he’ll be fine for the playoffs.
There’s no doubt the Bucks can score, but what Toronto did in the 2019 playoffs and Miami did in 2020 to beat Milwaukee was clog the lane and dare Giannis to shoot jumpers or from deep. While the Freak has improved from three-point range, he still only shoots 30.3 percent. While I do think the Bucks will beat Miami thanks to home-court advantage — Milwaukee was 26-10 at home – I don’t see the Bucks getting past the Nets unless Brooklyn suffers a major injury. A loss in the conference semifinals, especially if it’s a quick series, and Budenholzer probably is a goner.
NBA pick: Bucks lose in conference semifinals at +425 at Bovada