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Bucks vs. Wizards Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)

Originally published on November 7, 2021

The defending champions are below .500 this season. It’s not time to panic just yet but it’s definitely something to be nervous about if you’re a Milwaukee Bucks fan.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee will head on the road to face the Washington Wizards, who are 6-3 on the season after trading away Russell Westbrook to the Lakers for a large package of quality players.

That trade is paying off. But is that enough to make them our best pick today? Let’s check out the NBA odds for this game.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Washington Wizards

Sunday, November 07, 2021 – 06:00 PM EST at Capital One Arena

Westbrook being out of the picture has helped this Wizards team grow into a solid team. Now they’re 6-3 and looking for win number seven against the defending champs. The Bucks have been below average on the offensive end, scoring 106.6 points per 100 possessions and shooting an effective field goal percentage of 51.6 percent.

The Bucks have struggled to get any offensive rebounds but should be able to get to the line at a solid rate against Washington’s defense. The Wizards aren’t going to force many turnovers but they’ve been limiting teams to a 48.6 percent effective field goal percentage, which is second in the league up to this point. The Wizards will keep you in front and force bad shots while attacking the glass to rebound.

The Bucks need to take better shots and need to find ways to score over 100 points in games. In the last four games, Milwaukee is 1-3 with the lone win being the game they scored over 100 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.1 points per game for the Bucks while Khris Middleton is averaging 20 points. Next on the scoring list is Grayson Allen.

That’s where the disconnect is for this team. On the other hand, the Bucks also lack defense. They’re allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions with a 51.6 percent effective field goal percentage for the opposition. The Bucks also won’t force many turnovers and Washington should also find their way to the line.

The Bucks struggle to rebound at a high rate defensively, but Washington is really no better on the offensive glass. Newcomers like Montrezel Harrell and Spencer Dinwiddie have really improved this team around Bradley Beal. Harrell and Kyle Kuzma are close to 10 rebounds per game so far. That’s helpful against this Bucks team.

Prediction

There should be a solid amount of fouls in this game resulting in plenty of points from the line. Washington, however, is the better defense at this moment and while they don’t force turnovers and send teams to the line at a high rate, they’re holding teams to a 48.6 percent effective field goal percentage along with just 104.5 points per 100 possessions.

Those numbers are top 10 in the league and they’re also dominating the defensive glass on top of that. So when Washington forces teams to miss, the Wizards are able to limit second chances which are really helpful.

Oddsmakers don’t really want to trust Washington just yet against teams like the Bucks but after the Bucks were up by 20 and lost to the Knicks on Friday, there’s plenty of doubt when it comes to Milwaukee. The Wizards, at home, are three-point underdogs. I’ll take the points with the better-performing team right now.

NBA Pick: Wizards +3 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.