Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status will determine whether the Milwaukee Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns and the NBA odds this Tuesday night.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, July 06, 2021 – 09:00 PM EDT at Phoenix Suns Arena
The Phoenix Suns were everything we could have hoped for. During the 2020-21 NBA regular season, the Suns (51-21 SU, 42-28-2 ATS) were the most profitable team in the Western Conference, with Chris Paul taking command of a quality collection of two-way players, and Devin Booker, their leading scorer at 27.2 points per 36 minutes. Phoenix earned the number two seed in the West, then ran over three injury-plagued teams in the Los Angeles Lakers (going 4-2 SU and ATS), Denver Nuggets (4-0 SU and ATS) and Los Angeles Clippers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals. Money money money, hubba hubba hubba.
Wouldn’t you know it, the Suns have one more vulnerable team they need to beat to win their first ever title. The Milwaukee Bucks (46-26 SU, 32-40 ATS regular season; 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS postseason) ride into Tuesday’s opener with a very big question mark in Giannis Antetokounmpo; the former two-time league MVP hyperextended his left knee in the Eastern finals, and may or may not be ready for Game 1. That hasn’t stopped the online sportsbooks from getting busy, though. Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) opened Phoenix as 6-point home faves on their NBA odds board, and that’s where they sit at press time, after dipping briefly to –5.5 in early action. Do we want a piece of this?
It’s Always the Second Option
Maybe. The rumor mill says Antetokounmpo may have played in Game 7 of the ECF, had the Bucks not already eliminated the Atlanta Hawks in the previous contest. Milwaukee got by just fine without their best player, taking the last two games of that series SU and ATS – thanks in large part to the injuries suffered by Trae Young, who missed Game 5 and was completely ineffective when he returned in Game 6.
From a sports betting perspective, we’re hoping that Antetokounmpo follows the same path as Young. If he plays in Tuesday’s opener, which we’ll assume for now, Antetokounmpo’s performance will be compromised by his sore knee. This might not be reflected in the NBA lines; the betting public tends to overvalue superstar players like Giannis, making the Bucks a value pick when he doesn’t play, and making the other team a value pick when he plays hurt. It looks like the second scenario is more likely to play out.
Which is kind of a shame. The first scenario provides a lot more certainty for our NBA picks; if Antetokounmpo doesn’t play Game 1, we know exactly what his stat line will be. If he does play, how effective will he be? A little? A lot? Probably somewhere in between. This is definitely one of those games (as most are these days) where you should wait for the morning shoot-around to see who’s expected to suit up. Bet accordingly once you have that information, enjoy Game 1, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Suns –6 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
