The Brewers just keep on rolling, picking up a fourth straight game in San Francisco on Wednesday night, five-two, thanks to a late push from the offense. They’ll now go for a four-game sweep of the Giants when they face Logan Webb and the rest of the Giants crew on Thursday.
Despite all the momentum, the Brewers enter this one as steep underdogs with left-hander Eric Lauer on the hill. Is that fair, though? How much is truly between these teams? Can we pick out a winner here, or should we target the total? Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should be wagering over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Thursday, September 2, 2021 – 3:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The Milwaukee Brewers were already one of the hottest teams in baseball, and then they went to San Francisco, where they took the first three games against the then-NL West leaders. All the Brewers did was remove the Giants from their throne atop the division, simultaneously building a 10.5-game lead in the Central to move closer and closer to clinching a spot in the National League Division Series.
The offense has been steady over the run and in the last two weeks, but it’s hard to call it good. Milwaukee ranks 13th in the league with a 93 wRC+ during that time, hitting .239 with a .137 ISO. Those are weak numbers, but ones helped out by walks and timely hits. It’s also important to note this team still hasn’t struck out much lately, and that the numbers listed above are a stark contrast to the ones we saw from this team in the first half of the season. The Brewers have gone from a huge liability at the plate to a huge success story thanks to a trade for Willy Adames and some improved hitting from unlikely heroes in Jace Peterson and Luis Urias.
What’s continued to get the Brewers by opponents is their pitching. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff absolutely stifled the Giants through the first two games of this series, holding them to just three total runs, and then Brett Anderson and the Brewers bullpen came in and did an excellent job on Wednesday. Thursday night will represent the hardest task of the week for Milwaukee, who will be starting Eric Lauer.
It’s not as if Lauer’s 4.17 xERA and average strikeout and walk numbers makes him a bad pitcher, but it’s difficult to see him going six or seven innings and dominating one of the league’s best teams. With that, Milwaukee’s bullpen will likely be gassed from Wednesday’s team effort, making life difficult.
For the first time in months, the Giants now have to be worried about making the playoffs. After a third straight loss to the Brewers, they are now second in the NL West, a half game out of the Dodgers. It happened so suddenly, too, with Milwaukee’s fantastic pitching sealing their fate. It appeared San Francisco’s days were numbered as the leaders, but it always felt like it had more time.
Thursday will be the Giants’ chance to show that they’re the ones who have good pitching, too, tossing Logan Webb against the Brewers. With so many COVID issues on this team at the moment, the rotation has looked grim, and that should give Webb the spotlight he deserves. The righty has been excellent this year with a 22.65 ERA backed by a 3.38 xERA, striking out more than 26% of batters he’s faced.
Webb has struggled with hard-hit balls, but as we touched on above the Brewers aren’t actually making much of a dent in the power department and not picking up hits lately. San Francisco carries just an 86 wRC+ over the last two weeks into this one, and a pretty average 103 wRC+ against lefties.
This could be a prime spot to invest in some hot bats and fade a cold lineup in a bad spot. It seems hard to believe a team we anointed the best in baseball could get swept by one of the worst first-half offenses in the game, but a lot has changed over the months. Hitting should prevail here.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML +161 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.