Brewers vs. Mets Free MLB Picks and Preview (Archive)
The New York Mets will look to continue their home dominance against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. Can the Mets get the early series win on Wednesday night against Corbin Burnes?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks! Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s game.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, June 15, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
How Are the Mets Doing?
- The New York Mets picked up right where they left off at home.
- The Mets finished their last homestand, going 6-0.
- They ended up winning their first game back from their road trip, 4-0, over the Milwaukee Brewers.
How Are the Brewers Doing?
- The Brewers have been struggling as of late.
- They have now watched their record fall to 34-29 on the season.
- Milwaukee will be a playoff contender throughout the year, but at this very moment, the Brewers aren’t playing great baseball.
Who Is Pitching for the Brewers Today?
Last year’s Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes, will take the hill for the Brewers tonight. He’s been tremendous but hasn’t been given much run support on the year. He’s 3-4 despite having a 2.48 ERA on the season.
In the last 30 days, Burnes has had a 3.72 xFIP with 29.4% of strikeouts and 7.6% of walks. He’s not inducing a whole lot of grounders and is giving up 23.3% of line drives.
However, those numbers only matter when batters actually hit the ball. That’s a tough task against Burnes.
Who Is Pitching for the Mets Today?
Meanwhile, it’ll be David Peterson taking the hill for the Mets tonight. Peterson is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the season. In the last 30 days, however, things haven’t looked as good analytically.
Peterson has a 4.70 xFIP with 13.2% of walks through 76 plate appearances. Still, he’s earning 48.9% of grounders in those 30 days.
Brewers Lineup Analysis
- The Milwaukee Brewers are slumping.
- Tonight, they’ll face a lefty where the projected lineup has a .120 ISO and wOBA of .283.
- The Brewers are hitting 55.8% of ground balls against lefties while only hitting 14.8% of line drives against lefties.
Mets Lineup Analysis
- The Mets have a .204 ISO and wOBA of .342 with their projected lineup against righties.
- The Mets clearly have the better lineup as they’ve hit 25.5% of line drives against righties in the last 30 days.
Brewers vs. Mets: Game Prediction
Brewers Lineup Against David Peterson
The Brewers have been really bad over the last two weeks of the season. Against Peterson, lefties have a .353 ISO against him over his last 19 plate appearances against them.
The only two lefties in the lineup for the Brewers will be Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez and both of those two haven’t been very good offensively against lefties. Yelich has a .139 ISO while Tellez has a .036 ISO.
Meanwhile, Peterson has blown against righties with a .302 wOBA and ISo of just .043.
Mets Lineup Against Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes hasn’t been terrific against righties lately. He’s allowing a .329 wOBA and ISO of .204 against righties in his last 61 plate appearances against them.
The Mets will have just two righties in the lineup, however, with Pete Alonso and Starling Marte being the two bats. Both of these two bats have been better against righties than Yelich and Tellez have been against lefties.
But overall, there are really only two bats that can do a ton of damage on both teams.
MLB Betting Pick for Today
With that said, I’ll take the Under 7.5 with my MLB pick of the day. I’m expecting a lower-scoring game in this one.
Peterson isn’t always consistent but he has an ERA of 3.00, which is good enough for a 5th starter. On the other hand, you can always expect a quality outing out of Corbin Burnes. Obviously, he’s not getting enough run support, which helps with my thought that this game will likely go under the total.
The Brewers have been embarrassingly bad against lefties analytically while any team will end up struggling against Corbin Burnes.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.