Under 8.5 Runs (-113)
Braves vs. Mets MLB Preview and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Going into the season, the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets were heavy favorites to win a competitive NL East. After almost half of the season has been played, the Mets are the only team in the division with a winning record and they are in first place with a 37-31 record. In second place there is a three-way tie between the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals.
This week, New York has hosted Atlanta for a four-game series. The Mets won the first game, and the Braves have won the last two. For Wednesday’s game, the Mets are looking to tie the series and solidify their first-place spot in the NL East standings.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Probable Pitchers
● Braves: Kyle Wright (0-0, 4.15 ERA)
● Mets: Tylor Megill (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Stakes of the Matchup
While Atlanta and New York are close in the standings, both teams are built differently. The Mets have strong starting pitchers and a weak lineup. The Braves have weak starting pitchers and a strong lineup.
Currently Atlanta averages 4.69 runs per game while New York averages only 3.62 runs per game which is the second worst in the league. With the Braves scoring one more run per game than the Mets, the Mets are vulnerable if their pitching does not hold up.
With both teams relying on questionable starting pitching, there are several questions: Can a woeful Mets lineup combine with the Braves to go over a run total of 8.5 runs? Will Tylor MeGill pitch well in his MLB debut?
Pitching Matchup
For Wednesday night’s game, neither team has a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup. The Mets are relying on a 25-year-old Tylor MeGill who is making his MLB debut and only has 99 career minor league innings. The Braves are relying on Kyle Wright who has only pitched 4 1/3 innings this season.
Typically, when a team uses a rookie in their first MLB start, they will use that pitcher conservatively. They will let the pitcher pitch for four or five innings and then let the bullpen handle the rest of the game. For the Mets, they may not have that luxury as their bullpen had to pitch eight innings on Tuesday night due to starter Marcus Stroman getting injured.
Based on the limited data surrounding MeGill, the Mets appear to be fine for Wednesday’s game. MeGill only pitched once during spring training because he tested positive for COVID. However, in five Double-A starts MeGill had a 2-1 record with a 3.12 ERA, 1.83 xFIP, and 14.54 strikeouts per nine innings. In three Triple-A starts, MeGill had a 3.77 ERA, and a 3.71 xFIP. FanGraphs projects Megill to have a 3.79 ERA this season which would make him a reliable arm.
Opposing MeGill is Kyle Wright who has spent most of the season in the minors. In 2020 in eight starts, Wright had a 5.21 ERA, and a 5.33 xFIP. In Triple-A this season Wright has a 3.76 ERA, with a 4.69 xFIP. FanGraphs projects Wright to have a 4.87 ERA this season which makes him one of the weakest arms in a weak Braves starting rotation.
Prediction
Based on the uncertainty surrounding both Tylor MeGill and Kyle Wright, it is hard to pick a side for Wednesday night’s game. MeGill could pitch a great game, but the Mets could still lose because their lineup is weak. Wright could pitch a terrible game, but the Braves could still win because they have a great lineup.
That is why I like the under the best for my MLB picks, I see one of two things happening on Wednesday night. Either the MeGill pitches a great game and the Mets lineup scores only a few runs, or MeGill pitches an ok game, and the Mets don’t score enough runs to push the total over 8.5 runs. With New York involved and Citifield being a pitcher’s park, the under is the best bet.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-113) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.