Two of the hottest teams in the Mountain West will meet in what could be a preview of the conference’s championship game a week later. San Diego State has won three straight and leads the West Division by a game.
The Aztecs can clinch with a win or a loss and some help. Boise State has won four straight games to move into a three-team tie atop the East Division, with Air Force and Utah State. Keep reading to get some expert betting advice, look at the college football odds, and cash out your wins at the best online sportsbooks! Let’s dig in.
Friday, November 26, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at Dignity Health Sports Park
A month ago, Boise State was 3-4 and looked on its way to a disappointing season. The Broncos haven’t lost since and have recorded wins over a pair of Top 25 teams this season—BYU and Fresno State, both on the road—as they moved to the top of the division.
The return of running back George Holani, who missed time due to injury in the first half of the season, has helped to spark the turnaround. Holani returned to the starting lineup four games ago, just as the Broncos were starting their winning streak. Over that time, he’s averaged 94 yards a game and has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the last three. The Broncos have seen their rushing output increase by more than 50 percent, from 111 yards a game to 174, since Holani’s return.
Receiver Khalil Shakur has also been a star. His 56-yard score on Saturday put him over 1,000 yards on the season. The Boise defense has also stepped up. The Broncos have allowed fewer than 20 points in each of the last four games and five of the last six, including a 37-0 shutout of New Mexico last week. The Boise special teams have also pitched in, with a pair of punt block touchdowns against the Lobos.
San Diego state survived an upset bid by UNLV last week to win its third straight game and move to 10-1 on the season, 6-1 in the MWC. It’s the best start to a season for the Aztecs since 1977, and San Diego State is ranked in the AP poll for just the sixth time in program history.
The game continued a pattern of close wins for the Aztecs, each of SDSU’s last five wins has been by one score, including a double-overtime win over San Jose State. The team also had another overtime win over Utah earlier this season. The current three-game winning streak has been by a total of 17 points.
San Diego State’s defense was vulnerable to the deep ball against a UNLV squad that had its quarterback go down to injury early in the game. “I didn’t think we played Aztec football, especially on the defensive side,” coach Brady Hoke said. “We’ve got to do a better job. We can’t give up big plays thrown over our heads.”
The run defense, which ranks first in the Mountain West and fourth in the nation, came to the rescue, however. UNLV had just 22 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The Aztecs allowed just eight rushing yards to Nevada the week before.
Boise State’s ground game is one of the key factors behind the team’s turnaround. Holani and the rest of the Broncos runners will be facing their biggest test of the season against the San Diego State front seven.
For your NCAAF pick, look for the Aztecs to keep Holani in check and prevent Boise State from controlling the clock. San Diego State should get the win and clinch the division as a surprising home dog.
NCAAF Pick: San Diego State +2.5 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.