Bet This MLB Parlay at (+562) on Monday (Archive)
BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks and betting sites have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. We’ll break down these baseball games as we find they are worth investing in: the Giants vs. Braves, Blue Jays vs. White Sox, and Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, June 20, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Logan Webb to Start for San Francisco
San Francisco starts Logan Webb who looks to continue his strong form tonight. Webb has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three consecutive starts.
Among other things, he has excelled at limiting home runs, allowing zero during this three-game span. This ability to limit home runs is important because the Braves rely rather strongly on home runs for their scoring output.
As heat maps show, Webb is a cautious pitcher, one who likes to attack the borders of the strike zone where opponents are less likely to make hard contact.
Webb vs. Brave Batters
Tonight, Logan Webb is in a strong spot because he is pitching in Atlanta's venue. Let’s check some of Webb’s stats:
- In two career starts in Atlanta, Webb boasts a 0.69 ERA. Moreover, Webb matches up well with Brave batters.
- Webb throws a changeup, slider, and sinker. These pitches combine to make up nearly 97 percent of his arsenal.
- Atlanta, however, ranks 26th in slugging .332 against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Atlanta?
The Braves start Max Fried who, similar to Webb, looks to continue his strong form. He has yielded a sub-three FIP in each of his last three games. Especially during this three-game span, he has shown strong control while limiting hard contact.
Fried is arguably best known for his elite ability to get batters to chase his pitches out of the strike zone. He ranks in the 96th percentile in chase rate.
Today, Fried looks particularly promising because San Francisco's lineup matches up poorly with him.
Giants vs. Braves Betting Pick
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) with BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Monday, June 20, 2022 - 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Jose Berrios to Start for Toronto
Toronto starts Jose Berrios who is, by far, its most profitable pitcher. So far, he is yielding +7.5 units. In his starts, Toronto is particularly strong when it is the favorite, in which case it is 8-1 and yields +6.5 units.
One reason why Berrios looks reliable in today's MLB game is his strong form. He is doing a great job of going deep into outings while limiting runs.
Berrios vs. White Sox Batters
- White Sox batters look unreliable when they're facing a right-handed pitcher because their BA is almost .60 lower and their slugging rate is over .130 lower against right-handed pitchers.
- Atlanta’s hitting numbers at home are similarly abysmal compared to on-the-road games. Moreover, they match up poorly with Berrios in view of his three favorite pitches.
- Atlanta ranks 25th in slugging against the fastball, curveball, and sinker from righties.
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Lance Lynn, who made his first start of the season a week ago against Detroit. Despite facing perhaps the weakest offense in baseball, Lynn allowed three earned runs in 4.1 innings.
Even if his velocity climbs back up relative to what it was last year and even if he is sharper today, he matches up poorly against Toronto batters.
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Betting Pick
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-129) with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, June 20, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Arizona’s Starting Pitcher
Zach Davies starts tonight for Arizona. Davies has a lot of history in San Diego's venue and his experiences have been overwhelmingly positive. In his career, his ERA is 3.05 in 10 career starts in Petco Park.
Davies vs. Padre Batters
- Davies matches up well with his opponent's lineup.
- He primarily throws a sinker and changeup.
- San Diego, however, ranks 26th in slugging against Davies' unusual primary pitch combo from righties.
San Diego’s Starting Pitcher
Yu Darvish starts for San Diego tonight. The under has been automatic in Darvish's home starts. In Darvish's five home starts this year, the under is 5-0. His success contributes to this trend.
At home, Darvish is yielding a 1.35 ERA, and opponents are hitting .134 against him. Darvish's success at home persists even against strong lineups and against teams that match up well with him.
MLB Parlay Betting Picks for June 20
With your MLB picks in mind, expect low-scoring games in Atlanta and San Diego while Toronto overwhelms the White Sox.
For the above reasons, parlay the under between the Giants and Braves, the Blue Jays moneyline, and the under between the Diamondbacks and Padres.
- Giants vs. Braves: Under 8 (-110)
- Blue Jays ML (-129)
- Diamondbacks vs. Padres: Under 7 (-105)
MLB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+562) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.