Bet This MLB Parlay at (+461) on Monday (Archive)
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Marlins vs. Phillies and Pirates vs. Cardinals.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the moneyline for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at a top betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, June 13, 2022 – 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Who Is Pitching for the Marlins Today?
Miami starts the ever-reliable Sandy Alcantara tonight.
- Currently, Alcantara is Miami's most profitable pitcher in terms of units yielded.
- In games against NL East teams where Alcantara starts, Miami is 6-0, yielding +6.1 units.
Sandy Alcantara's Form
Alcantara is so reliable because it is so difficult to produce runs when he is on the bound. This difficulty is most evident most recently, thus attesting to his superb current form. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any of his last six starts.
It's not like his competition has been soft, either. During his current span of strong form, he locked down Atlanta in consecutive starts, during which he allowed all of one run in 17 combined innings. More recently, he shut out San Francisco over the course of 7 innings.
These starts were particularly impressive because Atlanta ranks ninth in runs per game while the Giants rank fourth in the category.
Phillies' Batters Against Sandy Alcantara
Alcantara's test tonight will be measurably a bit softer than San Francisco. Miami is a strong value play tonight because it is underdogged more heavily as a result of the fact that it plays on the road tonight.
However, Philadelphia is like a second home for Alcantara. In five career starts in Philly's venue, Alcantara boasts a 1.84 ERA.
Expect little from Rhys Hoskins, for example. Hoskins is batting .192 in his career with Alcantara on the mound, during which he has seven more strikeouts than hits.
Who Is Pitching for the Phillies Today?
Philadelphia starts Aaron Nola tonight.
- Nola has been terribly inconsistent this season.
- Pattern-wise, one should expect him to struggle tonight simply because he performed well in his last start.
- This season, he has yet to allow a sub-three ERA in consecutive starts.
Marlins' Batters Against Aaron Nola
Miami promises to thrive tonight because it matches up well against Nola, especially at the moment.
Over the course of the entire season, Miami ranks 11th in slugging, with a slugging rate .27 above the league average, against Nola's favorite pitches from righties.
However, the Marlins are hitting particularly well at this point of the season. They are averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last four games. During this span, they are slugging .733 against Nola's favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, June 13, 2022 - 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Who Is Pitching for the Pirates Today?
Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller tonight who is enjoying a good stretch of form right now.
- In his last four games, he has allowed a combined total of 5 earned runs.
- He has improved upon his tendency, apparent earlier in the season, to allow home runs.
- This improvement makes him match up more strongly with a Cardinals lineup that has some serious power.
Mitch Keller's Favorite Pitch
In particular, Keller relies on a fastball that he can locate more effectively.
Keller likes to place this pitch high in the zone while giving it a uniquely high amount of spin -- Keller's fastball spin rate ranks in the 87th percentile.
By elevating his fastball, Keller gives it the appearance of rising action, which compels batters to swing underneath it and thus fly out.
Cardinals' Batters Against Mitch Keller
This year, Keller does a much better job of inducing ground balls. This improvement is a product of his altered pitching repertoire. Specifically, he is throwing sliders at a vastly higher rate than he did last year.
His increased slider use makes him match up strongly against a Cardinals lineup that is at its worst -- hitting .239 and slugging .379 -- against pitchers classified as ground ball/fly ball pitchers. The Cards also rank below average in slugging against Keller's favorite pitches from righties.
Plus, Busch Stadium is a positive place for Keller. In his career, his ERA in the Cardinals' home ballpark is 3.21.
Who Is Pitching for the Cardinals Today?
St. Louis will have young southpaw Zack Thompson making his first career start tonight.
- The Cardinals have three starting pitchers injured, one of whom had already been converted from a bullpen role.
- Thompson's debut injection into the starting rotation is a matter of desperation on the part of St. Louis.
- The Pirates match up well against him, ranking above average in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+163) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
With your MLB picks in mind, expect strong upset road wins from Miami and Pittsburgh.
For the above reasons, parlay the Marlins and Pirates on the moneyline. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Marlins vs. Phillies: Marlins ML (+121)
- Pirates vs. Cardinals: Pirates ML (+163)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+461) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.