Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today (March 23) (Archive)
There are some very good players who will sit out games Wednesday around the NBA, and that should lead to betting value on their “replacements.”
Here are three NBA prop picks for the night via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
Sacramento Kings vs. Indiana Pacers
Wednesday, March 23, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Davion Mitchell
- Over/Under 24.5 Points + Assists
These teams made a big trade last month with the Kings shipping Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Tristan Thompson to Indiana for Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and a 2023 second-round pick. Thompson has since been waived by the Pacers, who probably won that deal simply because of the promising young Haliburton.
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The Kings thought Haliburton was expendable because they had another good point guard in De’Aaron Fox, but he’s not playing tonight with a hand injury and neither is Sabonis due to a knee injury. Sacramento is starting Operation Shutdown to try and improve its NBA Draft lottery position.
Rookie Davion Mitchell thus should become the primary scorer and passer tonight for the Kings. The No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft out of Baylor has had an up-and-down season in averaging 10.5 points and 3.4 assists but he also wasn’t playing heavy minutes when Haliburton and Hield were on the team.
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On Sunday vs. Phoenix, Mitchell played a whopping 45 minutes and had a career-high 28 points and nine assists while starting for Fox. Mitchell became one of four rookies to record 25 or more points with at least nine assists this season in joining Toronto’s Scottie Barnes, Detroit’s Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma City’s Josh Giddey.
I’m not saying Mitchell will go for 28 and nine again tonight, but he should do well in what figures to be a shootout between two teams with nothing to play for.
NBA Prop Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-115) at BetOnline
Brooklyn Nets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, March 23, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at FedExForum
Kyrie Irving
- Over/Under 26.5 Points
I actually wanted to do two-player props from this game: The Nets’ Kyrie Irving and Grizzlies' backup point guard Tyus Jones. Both are tied to the fact that Memphis All-Star point guard Ja Morant is getting the night off with a sore right knee. Morant is fine and if this were the playoffs, he’d be in there but the Grizz want to manage his workload ahead of the postseason.
Unfortunately, it prevents us from seeing a spectacular matchup between Irving and Morant. I would go over on Jones' points and assists tonight, but as of this writing, no books are listing his totals. Not sure why because Morant was ruled out Tuesday night.
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Because this is on the road, Irving can play, and not having to guard Morant will only help Irving on the offensive end. It seems like Kevin Durant has been OK taking a backseat to Irving in road games as of late. Kyrie had a career-high 60 points last time out (March 15) in Orlando and also had a 50-point game on March 8 in Charlotte.
He’s clearly motivated when finally able to play and may have to score a bit more tonight than usual with fellow guards Seth Curry and Goran Dragic in question. I would go under Durant’s point total of 28.5 tonight because it will be the Kyrie show.
NBA Prop Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 Points (-126) at BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Wednesday, March 23, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Spencer Dinwiddie
- Over/Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The Mavericks are resting superstar Luka Doncic tonight, and I would expect many teams who are playoff locks to rest their best players against the pitiful Houston Rockets the rest of the regular season. There’s just no reason to put them out there against a team that is actively trying to lose like Houston is. It can be more dangerous injury-wise when facing an opponent that doesn’t care.
When Dallas traded Kristaps Porzingis to Washington around the Trade Deadline for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans, most thought the Mavs were robbed. It turns out they have won that trade so far. Bertans hasn’t done much, but Dinwiddie has been spectacular as the No. 2 option behind Doncic, and he’ll be the No. 1 guy tonight against a defense allowing an NBA-worst (by far) 118.2 points.
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Doncic is capable of a triple-double every night – Dinwiddie won’t get one of those because he doesn’t rebound or pass as Luka does, but over the past 12 games Dinwiddie is averaging 19.6 points on 49.4 percent shooting, 4.3 assists and 3.6 rebounds. Dallas is 9-3 in those 12 games, and in the six that Dinwiddie has scored at least 20, the Mavs are 5-1.
The last game Doncic missed was March 5 vs. Sacramento. Dinwiddie responded with 36 points, seven assists and two rebounds.
NBA Prop Pick: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 32.5 Pts+Rbs+Ast (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.