Bellator 278: Velasquez vs. Carmouche Free Picks and Preview (Archive)
Who wants a double dose of Bellator violence? Well, whether you want it or not, you’re getting it this weekend with Bellator 278 AND Bellator 279!
Our main event for Bellator 278 sees Juliana Velasquez defending her Bellator flyweight championship for the second time as she battles former UFC mainstay, Liz Carmouche. Let’s get into the Bellator odds for this fight!
Juliana Velasquez vs. Liz Carmouche
Bellator Women’s Flyweight Championship Main Event Bout
Friday, April 22, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Blaisdell Arena
Betting Preview
Velasquez walks into the Bellator cage undefeated, which is impressive no matter where you are in fighting, but when you dig into the weeds of her career the caliber of opponent outside of Ilima Lei-Macfarlane is fairly lacking in terms of names/high-level fighting. This is not a slight on Velasquez’s skill set, but more of a statement on where we are in women's MMA, as the high watermark is still in the UFC.
This is how we get to Liz Carmouche. Since coming to the Paramount-owned MMA organization, Carmouche has won three straight, (one UD, one submission and one TKO) and earned her shot at a title fight in the first of two cards this weekend.
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And there is no arguing on the quality of opponents that Carmouche has fought in her career, with losses to Valentina Shevchenko, Miesha Tate, Ronda Rousey, and a TKO win over Jessica Andrade in a career that spans 12 years and with appearances in StrikeForce (RIPIP), UFC and now Bellator.
Velasquez has been a Bellator mainstay since 2017, fighting an average of twice a year until 2020, and since then has only fought twice. A win over Macfarlane and her most recent defense in July of 2021.
Biggest Indictment
That most recent defense may be the biggest indictment of betting against Velasquez in this Friday night’s fight night, as she won a split decision over Denise Kielholtz. And while Kielholtz is not a jabroni, this was her first five-round fight and the third straight decision and second straight five-rounder for Velasquez.
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Whether it was a style-makes-fights situation, an inactivity issue, or any number of situations, a defending world champion walking into a fight against a more veteran fighter who has faced some of the sport’s elite competition with a split decision to someone who had never seen championship rounds in their professional career.
And while Carmouche’s record after the third round can be considered not so great, the level of competition was.
The Bellator 278 Pick
Walking into this fight the defending champion is a -200 favorite according to BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) and Carmouche is a +160 underdog, and looking at this from the 360 point of view, I’m really liking the underdog in this fight.
Which is why I’m picking Carmouche in this bout, and if we had the ability to lock in a bet on the over/under for our betting picks, I’d take the over, as we’ve seen a pattern for Velasquez and she lives to go the distance, so I’d expect this to be a five rounder, with Carmouche taking a UD or an SD.
Bellator 278 Pick: Liz Carmouche to Win ML (+160) at BetOnline
Think I’m right? Think I’m wrong? Let me know on Twitter at MRyanConsulting… or not, you have free will and I just write words for money.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.