Bears vs. Buccaneers NFL Week 7 Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The Chicago Bears can beat the NFL odds this Sunday when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – but not because of Justin Fields. Here’s our preview and NFL pick for the match.
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 24, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Jay Cutler was the greatest quarterback in the history of the Chicago Bears. That statement might get you slapped upside the head with a slice of deep-dish pizza, but it’s true – unless you want to be charitable and give Sid Luckman the nod, ignoring the fact that Luckman enjoyed most of his success during World War II. There’s not much competition otherwise; Jim McMahon, Jim Harbaugh, Billy Wade... you could even make an argument for Mitchell Trubisky, who led all these players with an 87.2 passer rating.
The point is, the Bears (3-3 SU and ATS) aren’t known for their quarterbacks. They’re known for defense and running, and that’s why we’re putting them in our NFL picks for Sunday’s game against the defending champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS). It’s a classic contrarian pick with the Bucs laying 12.5 points at Heritage Sports as we go to press, nearly a week after most online sportsbooks opened them at –10 on the NFL odds board.
Green Fields
We’re certainly not making this pick because of Justin Fields. Is he the franchise quarterback Chicago fans have long dreamt about? Maybe someday, but not yet: Fields ranks dead-last on the passing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) charts at Football Outsiders. He’s also No. 27 overall in rushing DVOA, so no help there.
That defense, though. The Bears rank seventh overall (No. 6 pass, No. 23 rush) on that side of the ball, and they lead the nation in both sacks (21, tied with Minnesota) and adjusted sack rate (10.1 percent). Their strengths match up well with Tampa Bay’s strengths; the Bucs are No. 1 in passing offense, and Tom Brady is at the top of the efficiency charts heading into Week 7.
Run The Damn Ball
Did I mention rushing? Chicago ranks ninth overall in that category, mostly because of their ability to get past the first level and into the open field. While everyone moans about how poor the offensive line has been at pass protection – they’re at the bottom of the league in that department – the Bears have quietly done a capable job of run blocking. Very quietly, which helps our cause. All this, and special teams, too: Chicago ranks seventh overall here, putting Tampa Bay to shame at No. 20.
Throw all those numbers in the blender, and Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today only likes the Bucs to win by 8.10 points using his Rating formula. Open up those wallets and/or purses~! Or maybe not. We need to be very, very careful where we tread here; the Bears are going through some COVID-19 issues that might cost them both LB Robert Quinn and RB Damien Williams.
Also, FiveThirtyEight have Tampa winning by 12 points, and the consensus reports at BMR show 64 percent of bettors on the Bucs. On the plus side, it’s going to be a stinky-hot day in Tampa with temperatures around 87 degrees throughout the afternoon, which plays into Chicago’s favor. But let’s recognize what’s going on here, make it a very small bet to protect ourselves, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Bears +12.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.