Basketball Plays of the Day for January 31: Free NCAAB Picks (Archive)
The South Dakota State Jackrabbits will take on the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in the second game of a two-game series in conference play.
How much can South Dakota State win by? Let’s take a look at the NCAAB odds for tonight’s matchup.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Monday, January 31, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
Betting Preview
The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are currently a bottom 20 team in college basketball. Now they'll take on one of the best teams in the nation on offense in the South Dakota State Jackrabbits for the second time this season.
South Dakota State has won 10 straight games and has scored at least 80 points in every game. And that won't change tonight. They scored over 90 against North Dakota in their first meeting.
However, North Dakota's offense shouldn't be able to hang whatsoever, just like last time. To score 162 points in a college basketball game is already extremely hard. That's essentially each team scoring 81 points. I'd assume North Dakota only reaches about 70 points if that.
Let's get down to the numbers. South Dakota State will be on the road and currently have one of the highest effective field goal percentages in the nation.
Betting Analysis
The Jackrabbits are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 59.3 percent while shooting 44 percent from deep. The Jackrabbits have also hit 55.7 percent of twos and continue to limit turnovers at a high rate.
Meanwhile, yes, North Dakota's defense is the worst in the nation. Teams are shooting a 57.3 percent effective field goal percentage against them and the Fighting Hawks are only forcing 13.7 percent turnovers.
They've been awful defending the three and are just as bad against teams inside the arc this season. North Dakota is allowing teams to shoot 39.4 percent from deep and 56.2 percent from inside the arc.
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However, North Dakota's offense is only hitting 30.3 percent of threes and 46.5 percent of twos this season. The Fighting Hawks have limited turnovers to 18.1 percent and should struggle on the defensive glass, just like South Dakota State should. South Dakota State has also kept opponents off the line at a very high rate this season.
While SDSU continues to score at a ridiculous rate, the Jackrabbits don't get a ton of offensive rebounds or second chances. Off misses, South Dakota State will get the ball and move slower on offense.
Meanwhile, North Dakota won't get many second-chance opportunities either and likely won't see the line much either in this game.
So a 162.5 point total is just a lot of points when you include one of the worst teams in college basketball. Defensively, North Dakota is a disaster but offensively, they're also not good enough. If North Dakota only scored 70 points, South Dakota would need 93 points to beat us.
Betting Prediction
This is just a case of the number being super high. Everything has to go right for this over to hit.
In the last meeting between these two teams, South Dakota State won 96-61`. If you do the math, you'd realize that the game went under the total of 162.5 in that one. Because again, North Dakota can't keep up offensively.
Meanwhile, South Dakota State shot above their percentages in that game, hitting 52.2 percent of threes and 61 percent of shots inside the arc.
On the other hand, to get to 61 points, North Dakota still shot nearly 44 percent inside the arc and 28 percent from three. That's a slightly below-average game for North Dakota offensively and you can expect that again tonight.
We just need a four-minute period where the scoring lacks. Again, a number with 162.5 means everything has to go right for the over. So we'll back the under here with our NCAAB pick!
NCAAB Pick: Under 162.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.