Basketball Plays of the Day for January 20: Free NBA Betting Picks (Archive)
The red-hot Dallas Mavericks will host the NBA’s best team when the Phoenix Suns come to town. Both teams are playing great at the moment although Dallas did start off the season poorly by their standards under new head coach Jason Kidd.
With Luka Doncic looking healthy again this should be an interesting matchup between two teams at the top of their game at the moment.
So let’s take a look at the NBA odds for tonight.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, January 20, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Mavs Are League's Hottest Team
Before this current ten-game stretch that has seen the Dallas Mavericks go 9-1, they were one game below .500 on the season at 17-18. That obviously was way below expectations and it was looking like replacing Rick Carlisle with Jason Kidd was a mistake.
The jury is still out with half the season still left to play but the current signs point to a team that is finally figuring out an identity. Although we have come to think of Dallas as an offensive team, this current stretch has been spearheaded by their defense.
During this ten-game run, Dallas is allowing 98.2 points per 100 possessions which is by far the best number during that stretch. For context, Golden State, who have the number one rated defense in the league on the season, are second to Dallas at 104.3 during this same stretch.
It is highly unlikely that they can maintain this type of defensive pace for an extended period but it has to be an encouraging sign for this group.
They come into this game tonight against the Phoenix Suns as home underdogs. While I have not been in the business of fading the Suns this season, this would seem like a spot where it could have some value.
At the moment, you can get the Mavs at +3 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) or at +2.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). This is what is available at the time of this writing but you should expect this line to continue to move throughout the course of the day.
Suns Are Not as Good ATS as Last Season
The Suns have the best record in the NBA having won 79% of their games. The problem for us, sports bettors, is they've only covered 56% of their spreads which ranks 8th in the league. That isn't terrible but it is worth paying attention to.
Despite Dallas' poor start to the season, they are still 12th against the spread (ATS). While the Suns have a margin of victory on the road that is over two possessions (7.4) I still think there is value with the Mavs here.
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That road margin of victory has received a nice boost with their last three coming against Pistons, Pacers and Spurs. All three teams have losing records on the season and the Suns won those games by an average of 19.6 points per game.
To me, the fact that some of the top online sportsbooks only have them as -2.5 point favorites is the ultimate sign of respect for what this Dallas team is doing right now.
The Pick
In any team sport, I will always buy into the team on a winning streak due to defense. Defense is way more consistent than offense for teams that put in the effort.
On top of that, I think the Mavs will have a mismatch with Luka who always tends to play well against them. My official NBA pick is Mavs plus the points.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.