Basketball Plays of the Day for October 20: Free NBA Betting Picks (Archive)
The NBA is finally back and we have a large card to look at for this evening. Here are our top plays. Top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Wednesday’s NBA betting card. It is opening night for the teams that are playing tonight, which means that preseason expectations have to be weighed against shifting realities.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Chicago vs. Detroit and Orlando vs. San Antonio. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread in the former game and the total in the latter.
Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 – 7:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
New Players
Before I explain why I don’t like the Bulls tonight, I want to clarify that, long-term, the sundry additions that they made to their roster look quite attractive. But predicting tonight’s game against Detroit isn’t about evaluating Chicago’s long-term prospects, it’s about the here and now.
My concern with the Bulls is that they have several new pieces that will need to play as a team in order to succeed. Most notably, the Bulls acquired point guards Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. They also brought in guard/forward DeMar DeRozan.
Flow
The betting interest in Chicago reflects the sports betting hype for Chicago’s new acquisitions. However, this hype reflects a fundamental overeagerness and misunderstanding about how strong alterations in personnel play out. This is not a video game where players suddenly enjoy chemistry with each other.
While it is true that the Bulls produced some nice numbers in the preseason, preseason so often fails to predict what will transpire in the regular season that it’s hard to take preseason performances seriously. Preseason games, after all, don’t actually count for anything.
What I find vastly more meaningful than Chicago’s postseason numbers are the complaints from coach Donovan regarding the team’s lack of flow. This lack of flow makes absolute sense to expect from the Bulls because guys who, based on their high usage rates last season, are used to being heavily involved in the offense will have to do more sharing than they are used to.
This lack of flow and team chemistry is not a problem for tonight’s Piston players who, because Cade Cunningham has been ruled ’out’ for this game, are to a comparatively high degree already used to each other after last season.
Rebounding
One distinct flaw in Chicago’s new look is its lack of size. Starting at power forward, Patrick Williams contributes to this lack of size by being only 6’7. His backups exacerbate this problem. Derrick Jones, for example, is an inch shorter. Without competitive size, Chicago suffers a disadvantage on the glass.
The importance of rebounding is understated because, on offense, it gives shooters a higher margin of error by allowing them to miss more shots in order to score on a given possession. In a similar vein, on defense, good rebounding reduces the opponent’s margin of error, allowing it fewer opportunities to score.
So, while chemistry issues hinder the Bulls on offense, they lack the personnel to compensate for these issues by taking advantage of the glass.
Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk
As his elevated usage rate, last season indicates, Jerami Grant plays a seminal role in the Piston offense.
Grant’s prospects tonight look particularly strong because, during the offseason, the Pistons replaced Mason Plumlee with Kelly Olynyk. This move helps Detroit tonight. First of all, losing Plumlee’s rebounding prowess doesn’t hurt the Pistons against a team like Chicago.
Moreover, Olynyk helps because his versatility -- he can play at the ’four’ or the ’five’ -- allows him to match up with Chicago’s smaller lineup. Plus, Olynyk is a consistent source of three-pointers. He provides floor-spacing that Grant can exploit with one-on-one opportunities that Chicago’s frontcourt will have to deal with somehow.
Therefore, expect the Pistons to cover with your best bets.
NBA Pick: Pistons +5 at -105 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Orlando Magic vs. San Antonio Spurs
Wednesday, October 20, 2021 - 8:30 PM EDT at AT&T Center
Youth, Youth, More Youth
The Magic have a lot of young guards who have bright futures but whose immediate outlook is bleak. For starters, Markelle Fultz has to rediscover his form after suffering a season-ending knee injury last year. Jonathan Isaac has the same problem and he will not play today, thus depriving Orlando’s offense of his efficiency inside the arc.
Then, there is more youth in the form of rookie Jalen Suggs and second-year player Cole Anthony, who contribute to Orlando’s looming problems: the Magic lack experience and they lack a go-to scorer.
Proven Bigs
Orlando’s well-proven center is Wendell Carter Jr. who is known for his defensive abilities, for his shot-blocking prowess that he cultivates by playing bigger than his size indicates. His defensive prowess has long been evident as, for example, his former team Chicago suffered statistical regression on defense when he wasn’t in the game.
The Spurs can match Carter Jr.’s defensive abilities with starter Jakob Poeltl, who is obviously a big upgrade on defense over the slower, aging, and departed LaMarcus Aldridge. Poeltl largely explains San Antonio’s high ranking last year in limiting opposing efficiency within five feet of the basket.
More Defense
San Antonio is more built for defense this year. Besides relying on Poeltl, the Spurs lost DeMar DeRozan, who has deservedly been known as a liability on defense. Derrick White replaces DeRozan in the starting lineup. Last year, White’s defensive rating was seven points stronger than DeRozan’s.
With former All-Defensive Team member Dejounte Murray at point guard, the Spurs are loaded, defensively, in the backcourt. In this game, therefore, there will be a lot of defense with little offense. For the above reasons, take the "under" with your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Under 212.5 at -104 with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.