It’s looking likelier by the day that the New York Yankees will be in the upcoming MLB Postseason. It’s also looking like they’re going to be finishing atop the wild-card standings by a considerable margin, gearing up to host the wild-card game while other teams duke it out for the chance to challenge New York at Yankee Stadium.
One of those teams is the Toronto Blue Jays, who desperately need to turn this series around against the Yankees after a tough loss on Tuesday. With the stage set, let’s get into who wins this game. We’ll go over the MLB odds and give out our MLB pick at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 – 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Everyone is allowed to have bad days, even Gerrit Cole. The Yankees’ ace had a night to forget in an 11-1 loss to the Indians back around a week ago, allowing seven earned runs on 10 hits and a walk over 5 2/3 innings. He allowed two home runs, which was uncharacteristic, though he did strike out seven.
Then, Cole turned in a better outing in Boston over the weekend. He again allowed a homer, but did make it through six innings with just three earned runs on his ledger. This was a return to the form which we became accustomed to seeing from the well-traveled flamethrower over the last month or so.
Prior to the seven-run meltdown, Cole put together a simply masterful run of six starts. In those outings, his ERA sparkled at 1.35, and he struck out 48 hitters in 33 1/3 innings. Cole only allowed two homers over that span, and he was even a bit unfortunate to allow the runs he did with a .312 batting average on balls in play against him.
One of the teams Cole shut down was the Blue Jays, a side he knows all too well. He’s seen them four times this year, registering a 2.74 ERA over 23 innings, striking out 22. He has allowed four homers in those starts, but on the whole, he’s been able to quiet one of the strongest lineups in baseball.
Speaking of lineups, it doesn’t get much better than the Yankees right now. They’re third in wRC+ over the past two weeks and they have Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in four straight games with 13 RBIs in that span. Aaron Judge also appears to be fine after dislocating his left pinky finger against Boston, hitting a solo home run in Tuesday night’s win over the Blue Jays.
Like Cole, Jose Berrios is no stranger to the Yankees. This time, though, the numbers don’t listen. Berrios memorably blew up against the Yankees in the 2017 AL Wild Card Game before allowing three runs (one earned) in a lopsided loss in the ALDS two years later.
In his four career regular-season starts against New York, he’s pitched to a 4.79 ERA over 20 2/3 frames, allowing 22 hits and a whopping 10 walks with three home runs. That’s not good! Berrios has been pretty good lately, but the Yankees have been his undoing throughout his career.
That’s bad news when you look at the Blue Jays’ offense lately, which ranks 24th in wRC+ over the past two weeks. Of course, there are plenty of talented bats in this lineup, but you have to be concerned about those numbers heading into a matchup with Cole.
The Combination of Berrios’ historical struggles with the Yankees, the presence of Gerrit Cole on the hill for the Yankees with his current form and the Blue Jays’ slump have me leaning heavily towards the Yankees here. Getting this kind of price on Cole in a meaningful game — perhaps one of the biggest of the season — is a gift, and it’s a gift I’ll be taking. New York should take control of the series and the first position in the wild-card race.
MLB Pick: Yankees -110 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.