We preview Tuesday’s National League West clash between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, study the MLB odds and share our MLB picks.
Tuesday, September 28, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers are two games behind the Giants in the race to win the National League West and they would love to avoid playing a Wild Card game, so this contest matters a lot to them. The results are not too important to the reeling Padres anymore but they can help determine who wins the National League West.
The Padres are going with Yu Darvish (3.91 FIP), while the Dodgers respond with Walker Buehler (3.25 FIP). On paper, this matchup favors the Dodgers, who are 20-11 in Buehler’s 31 starts but they’re break-even (+0 units). The Padres are down 3 units on a 17-12 record in Darvish’s 29 starts.
The Padres have lost Yu Darvish’s (8-10, 4.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) last eight road starts and he is winless since September 8th. Darvish allowed four earned runs on three hits (one home run) with seven strikeouts and three walks over 5 1/3 innings to get a no-decision in a 7-6 home win against the Giants last Thursday. The current Dodgers roster is 22-for-133 (.128) against him. Max Muncy is 2-for-11 (.182) with one RBI.
Walker Buehler (14-4, 2.58 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) struggled at Coors Field last Wednesday, giving up five earned runs on seven hits (one home run) with two strikeouts and zero walks over just 3 2/3 innings to get a no-decision in a 10-5 loss against the Rockies. Buehler is just 1-2 with a 7.32 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his last four starts. Fernando Tatis Jr. is 6-for-19 (.316) with three home runs and four RBIs against him.
The Dodgers opened at -185 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -186 based on our calculations (they suggest the Dodgers will win this game 65 percent of the time). The projections say there isn’t much value on the Dodgers.
San Diego is all about Fernando Tatis Jr. (.987 OPS). He’s by far the best bat in their lineup, which ranks a disappointing 15th overall in hitting at 18.8 WAR according to FanGraphs. Manny Machado (.841 OPS) is doing his part and Jake Cronenworth (.808 OPS) made the All-Star team as a sophomore, but none of their other players has an OPS above .750 this season. The starters and relievers have been mediocre, too. There’s a reason why this is not a postseason team but the Dodgers rank just No. 13 in hitting value (3.7 WAR) in the last 30 days according to FanGraphs and No. 16 in Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .314.
LA is hitting .235 against right-handers in the last 30 days, with a .175 ISO and a .311 wOBA
MLB Pick: Padres +160 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.