NFL Pick: 2023 Baltimore Ravens Over 10.5 Wins (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Baltimore Ravens are hoping a clean bill of health for Lamar Jackson sets up the newly-paid quarterback for his best season since he was the unanimous MVP in 2019.
That was the last time the Ravens won the AFC North, and it was also the only season where Jackson passed for over 3,000 yards. Injuries have cost him the end of the last 2 seasons, and the Cincinnati Bengals have taken full advantage by winning back-to-back division titles.
But no one has ever won the AFC North division in 3 straight seasons. With what should be a new look on offense, the Ravens may be in a prime position to reclaim the AFC North as their division. The top-rated offshore sportsbooks have Baltimore with an over/under of 10.5 wins, or just a win behind the top teams in the league.
Is this the year where the Ravens put it all together and get back to competing for a Super Bowl under John Harbaugh? In case you forgot, the Ravens are the only current team besides the Chiefs (Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes) to have a Super Bowl-winning head coach and an MVP-winning quarterback.
The Changes That Matter
A new season means a reset of health for most players, and the Ravens also have some new ideas and weapons to tinker with.
Is the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swinging?
It is just a statement of fact that in the last 2 seasons, the Ravens were leading the AFC North ahead of the Bengals at the time when Lamar Jackson was injured for the rest of the season.
That has happened the last 2 Decembers, and the Bengals have taken full advantage each time. In 2018-20, Jackson only missed 1 game for health-related reasons, and that was because of a bad COVID test result in 2020. But he stayed healthy despite being a prolific runner in those years.
Maybe things are swinging the other way this season. Jackson will be healthy for Week 1, but now it is Joe Burrow in Cincinnati with the health concerns after a calf strain suffered in training camp. The reports are “several weeks” for Burrow being out of action, but that remains to be seen if it means any regular-season games will be missed.
With that first huge matchup between the teams in Cincinnati in Week 2, this could be a big advantage for the Ravens early in the season as they look to reclaim the AFC North title.
New Offense for Lamar
When Jackson won MVP in 2019, the Ravens had a very complete roster, but his leading receivers were Mark Andrews (breakout year at tight end), Marquise Brown (rookie), Hayden Hurst (backup tight end), Willie Snead, and Nick Boyle (No. 3 tight end).
It was far from the most exciting or skilled cast in the league. But by last year, things had decayed to where Demarcus Robinson, Devin Duvernay, and rookie tight end Isaiah Likely were the leading receivers after Andrews. Brown was traded to Arizona, and new receiver Rashod Bateman was injured and limited to 6 games in 2022.
This is why there is real excitement for Lamar’s receiving corps in 2023 because it should be deeper and more skilled than ever:
- Andrews is still one of the best tight ends in the league.
- Odell Beckham Jr. is past his prime, but as he showed with the Rams in 2021, he can help a team win a championship and he has had over a year to recover from his torn ACL.
- Likely is no longer a rookie and can make for an excellent 2-tight end offense with Andrews.
- Bateman was showing a good connection with Jackson last year and is back healthy.
- The team drafted Zay Flowers in the 1st round, and he can be a high-efficiency slot target.
Change of Philosophy
Add in the running game and how Jackson himself is still one of the most effective runners in NFL history from the quarterback position, and this is an offense that should be worth watching again.
But a philosophy change was also needed, and that is why replacing Greg Roman at offensive coordinator with Todd Monken can be the key move to this team’s success in 2023.
Monken has had success in a variety of situations, including in Tampa Bay in the late 2010s and with helping Georgia to back-to-back national titles. While Jackson is unlikely to start throwing for 5,000 yards in Baltimore this year, he should throw more than he ever has, and the team will not abandon the run and having a physical identity.
Jackson was a leading MVP candidate early last season before the injuries started to pile up, then he had a few bad turnovers in losses. But as one of the only quarterbacks not named Mahomes to win a recent MVP, it is time we start trusting Jackson to be a star again this regular season.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Ravens were well on pace to go over 10.5 wins the last 2 seasons before Jackson was injured. If he stays healthy, you will not see 13-3 and 16-13 losses to the Browns and Steelers.
In addition to what is expected to be an improved offense, you can usually rely on the Ravens to have a solid defense and special teams. Justin Tucker, the best to ever do it, is still the kicker, and he can be worth a win or two by himself.
But the schedule also starts out in favor of Baltimore getting off to a good start.
- September is a chance to pounce on maybe two rookie quarterbacks in Week 1 against Houston with C.J. Stroud) and Indianapolis in Week 3 with Anthony Richardson).
- Joe Burrow’s mobility could be affected with that calf in Week 2 when the teams meet in Cincinnati for the 1st crucial AFC North game of the year.
- The Cincinnati rematch is on a short week (Week 11) in November, so that is usually an advantage for the home team.
- While Jackson has struggled with Pittsburgh in limited opportunities, you can usually count on a split in that rivalry.
- Jackson is 6-1 in starts he finishes against Cleveland in his career.
- The Ravens could go 3-1 against a favorable NFC West division where a trip to San Francisco (Week 16) may be the only game they would be an underdog in.
- Baltimore does not have to play Buffalo or Kansas City while the Bengals must play both.
Over or Under?
Given how the schedule seems favorable to Baltimore for both Cincinnati games, and that last point about the Bills and Chiefs, the Ravens are a great choice to win the AFC North, which should get at least one team over 10.5 wins this year.
Take the new-look Ravens to hit the over in wins for your NFL picks. Trust that Jackson will not get seriously injured 3 years in a row.
NFL Pick: 2023 Baltimore Ravens Over 10.5 Wins (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
2022 Recap: No Jackson, No Action
This might sound hyperbolic, but the 2022 Ravens could have started 13-0 last season:
- Week 2 vs. Miami: Blew a 35-14 lead in the fourth quarter, including a dropped interception halfway through the quarter that should have been enough to end the threat from Tyreek Hill’s two bombs.
- Week 4 vs. Buffalo: Blew a 20-3 lead from the first half, highlighted by Lamar Jackson’s fourth-and-goal interception with 4:09 left when the Ravens should have kicked a go-ahead field goal against a Buffalo team that loses a lot of 1-score games.
- Week 6 at Giants: Blew a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead after two crucial Jackson turnovers in the final 3 minutes.
- Week 12 at Jacksonville: Blew fourth-quarter leads of 19-10 and 27-20 after allowing a 2-point conversion with 14 seconds left.
Those were all losses to playoff teams, but we are not used to seeing the Ravens blow so many double-digit leads. They also blew more 17-point leads by Week 4 than they had blown in the last 24 seasons combined.
These missed opportunities were the story of Baltimore’s season before it became about Lamar’s leg injury in December. For the second year in a row, the Ravens were leading the AFC North at a time when Jackson was injured and never played again the rest of the season.
The Ravens never scored more than 17 points the rest of the way, but at least they made the playoffs this time. Unfortunately, Tyler Huntley fumbled on a quarterback sneak at the 1-yard line in Cincinnati, and the Bengals returned that for a 98-yard game-winning touchdown, the longest fumble return touchdown in NFL playoff history.
It was a spirited effort by the Ravens in Cincinnati, but it was still another one-and-done playoff season instead of something that could have been much more.
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