Penn State is heavily favored against Ball State. How should you bet on this game?
The Top Sportsbooks have released their college football odds for Saturday’s game between Ball State and Penn State. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for this game.
Saturday, September 11, 2021 – 03:30 PM EDT at Beaver Stadium
It might seem like an easy decision to fade Penn State on Saturday because the Nittany Lions seem to find themselves in a classic sandwich spot. It is common for teams to lack motivation when preparing for and playing a low-profile team in between two games against higher-profile teams.
Coming off a big road win at fellow Big Ten competitor Wisconsin, Penn State, it may be said, will have a let-down and will not get up for Ball State, especially with another higher-profile team in Auburn on deck.
One may counter that this year’s version of Auburn is not worth looking ahead to. History tells us, in any case, that the validity of this counter is irrelevant and that, in fact, the Nittany Lions are not positioned in a letdown spot, a sandwich spot, or a lookahead spot. In 2019, for example, Penn State more than tripled the spread at Michigan State despite having played ranked Michigan and having ranked Minnesota on deck.
In 2018, the Nittany Lions crushed Illinois 63-24 even though highly ranked Ohio State was the next opponent. Under James Franklin, there is no historical basis for fading Penn State in this "sandwich" situation.
Actually, this is a great spot for the Penn State offense. James Franklin is notorious for being a bully when his squad takes on low-level teams. Under Franklin, Penn State loves to run up the score. In 2019, examples include 79-7 vs. Idaho and 59-0 vs. Maryland. Despite having long sealed the win against Idaho, for example, Penn State’s second-highest quarter was the fourth.
This prolific success against lower-profile teams extends to recent MAC squads. In 2019, the Nittany Lions crushed Buffalo 45-13. In 2018, they rocked Kent State 63-10 after running up the score against Pitt and before running up the score against Illinois.
My claim is that Ball State becomes Penn State’s next MAC victim. Based on the history that I’ve outlined, it makes sense to either bet on Penn State or to bet the "over." With our Sports Betting Sites in mind, I contend that the situation rather calls for the "over."
Last week, in its win against Wisconsin, Penn State’s defense was on the field for an absurd 42 minutes and 51 seconds. Wisconsin ran 96 plays on the PSU defense.
Especially since the Badgers are characteristically a physical Big Ten squad, that length of time and number of plays must cause some damage -- specifically to Nittany Lion defenders -- that is difficult to recover from.
I like the "over" also because Ball State’s offense can do enough scoring to jeopardize Penn State’s chances of covering the large spread. The most obvious reason is two-time All-Mac first-teamer at wide receiver Justin Hall, Hall is versatile because he’s dangerous on the ground, for which reason he’s well-reputed and experienced also as a running back and as a kick returner.
He is quick and he’ll use that quickness to turn short passes into big gains or to stretch the field vertically. The primary deep threat on Ball State is actually Yo’Heinz Tyler, who steadily improves in every season while benefitting from the attention that defenses perforce devote to Hall.
These guys have a veteran in Drew Plitt throwing to them. Plitt will have plenty of time to throw behind his experienced, relatively large (by MAC standards) offensive line consisting of longstanding veterans.
This group contends with a Nittany Lion pass rush that sorely misses the injured Adisa Isaac after suffering significant turnover -- including last year’s team sack leader Shaka Toney -- in its front seven in the offseason.
Know for your Best Bets that, last week, Ball State allowed 367 passing yards to FCS school Western Illinois. This performance would be easy to shrug off if it did not help confirm preexisting concerns surrounding the Cardinal secondary. These concerns stem from the departure of former All-MAC cornerback Antonio Phillips. Especially without him, the Cardinals lack the top-level ability in the secondary to contain speedster Jahan Dotson.
They lack guys who can make plays or react quickly enough to the ball in the air. Quarterback Sean Clifford had a huge second half against Wisconsin -- one that totaled over 200 passing yards -- largely because of his ability to find Dotson who repeatedly got behind the Badger secondary.
Quick scores are great for an "over" and, with the chemistry between Clifford and the deep threat Dotson, the PSU pass attack can accomplish plenty of these.
For the above reasons, take the "over" with your College Football Picks.
NCAAF Pick: Over 55.5 at -108 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.