The Vegas Golden Knights can knock out the one-time Stanley Cup-favored Colorado Avalanche in Game 6 of their playoff series in Sin City on Thursday, and the Knights are favored to do so. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Thursday, June 10, 2021 – 10:00 PM ET at T-Mobile Arena
The Colorado Avalanche won the Presidents’ Trophy in the regular season, which gave them home-ice advantage throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have been Stanley Cup betting favorites for several weeks. They no longer are.
With Vegas pulling the Game 5 upset in Denver to take a 3-2 series lead, the Tampa Bay Lightning have jumped into the +170 Stanley Cup-favored role on the NHL odds at BMR’s top-rated books. The Lightning already are through to the “conference finals” – of course there are no conferences this year.
The Golden Knights are now +245 second-favorites to win their first Cup and -150 to reach the Cup Finals. Colorado is +350 on the NHL futures odds to win the Cup for the first time in two decades and +275 to reach the Cup Finals. The winner of this series will be a pretty heavy favorite over the surprising Montreal Canadiens (+900 to win Cup) in the next round.
That the Cup winner come from the NHL’s West Division, which would mean either Vegas or Colorado, is an even-money favorite.
This writer thought the Avalanche would win Game 5 because they were on a 13-game home winning streak, the longest in the NHL in six years, and hadn’t lost in regulation in Denver since early March. This writer really thought the Avs were going to win when they entered the third period up 2-0 thanks to goals from Brandon Saad (seventh of the playoffs) in the final seconds of the first period and Joonas Donskoi (third) at 16:28 of the second.
Colorado was 35-1-1 this year including playoffs when leading after two periods yet managed to lose 3-2 in overtime. Absolutely shocking.
Vegas has really shut down Avs star Nathan MacKinnon as he doesn’t have a point in the past three games and is minus-three with just nine shots on goal. He had eight shots in Game 1 when he scored two goals and had an assist.
Coach Jared Bednar, whose job may be in jeopardy, tried to shake things up in Game 5 by splitting up his top line of MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. Saad replaced Landeskog on the top line and that new trio had a 3-1 edge in high danger chances and 66 expected goals for percentage at 5-on-5. The second line of Landeskog, J.T. Compher and Valeri Nichushkin had a 5-1 edge in high danger chances and 87 expected goals for percentage. It will be interesting to see what Bednar does for this game because now the Knights have the last line change.
Vezina Trophy finalist Philipp Grubauer allowed three goals on 25 shots – there’s no thought of replacing him. Colorado is on its second three-game skid of the season and hasn’t lost four in a row.
The Avalanche are 1-4 on NHL picks in their past five as playoff underdogs.
Good news for Knights fans: When a best-of-7 series is tied at two games apiece, the winner of Game 5 takes the series 78.8 percent of the time.
While Vegas had dominated Colorado in Games 2-4, the Avalanche were the more aggressive team in Game 5 as the Knights were outshot (30-25) and outhit (41-31). Alex Tuch got the comeback started at 1:03 of the third with his fourth goal of the playoffs, Jonathan Marchessault’s sixth of the postseason at 4:07 tied it, and Mark Stone won it at 0:50 of OT with his fifth.
It was the first playoff overtime goal for Stone and his 50th career postseason point. He has 18 playoff goals since joining the Golden Knights in 2018-19, fifth in the NHL over that span. Stone is in the Conn Smythe Trophy conversation as he also plays terrific defense.
Vegas has come from behind to win each of the past three games, and Marchessault tied each of those with a goal to become the third player in NHL history to score a tying goal in three or more consecutive games within a playoff year. The record is four in a row by Chicago’s Steve Larmer in 1989.
Marc-Andre Fleury allowed two goals on 30 shots in Game 5. The future Hall of Famer now has 88 career playoff wins, tied with Billy Smith and Ed Belfour for fourth place on the all-time list. Fleury obviously can take solo third Thursday with a victory. It was Fleury’s 12th career playoff OT win, behind only Tuukka Rask (15) and Braden Holtby (14) among active goaltenders.
The Knights got a big boost in Game 5 in the return of winger Mattias Janmark. He hadn’t played since Game 1 due to injury but assisted on Tuch’s tying goal and finished plus-1. Vegas is 15-6 in its last 21 on the NHL odds after allowing two goals or fewer in its previous game. We like the Knights to finish it off in front of a rabid crowd.
NHL pick: Golden Knights at -135 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.