Athletics vs. Giants MLB Best Bet: Scoring Soars in San Francisco
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LT Profits
- July 31, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After going 3-0 on Sunday and we are currently on a 15-6 run in our last 21 plays. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a total in the Bay Area Wednesday with the Athletics visiting the Giants.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Cubs vs. Reds and Dodgers vs. Padres games.
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 – 09:45 PM ET at Oracle Park
Shaky Return
We are looking for a high-scoring affair in San Francisco on Wednesday, and are thus supporting the Over when Ross Stripling and the Athletics visit Logan Webb and the Giants.
Stripling was fortunate to get the win in his last outing when returning from an elbow strain that had him on the injured list. He “improved” to 2-9 in his comeback start despite surrendering five earned runs with only three strikeouts against two walks in 5.2 innings. That leaves Stripling with a whopping 6.02 ERA for the season covering 61.1 innings with a 4.56 xFIP.
Ross Stripling is certainly a contact pitcher, as while he has a good enough walk rate of 2.05/9, he also has a low strikeout rate of just 5.58/9. He is not fooling many batters with a putrid swinging strike rate of 7.8%, and much of that contact has been in the air given his below-average groundball rate of 37.3%.
Stripling has made 12 starts this season and allowed less than three runs just three times, allowing more than three runs in four of his five starts and exactly three runs in the other one.
Does Not Look Right
Now, we have always liked Logan Webb and feel he is underrated for a guy with a career 3.46 ERA and 3.22 xFIP. And he is not too far off those levels this season with a 3.72 ERA and 3.29 xFIP. However, both figures are on the rise as Webb has uncharacteristically had three straight bad starts.
We are not sure if there is some hidden injury involved, but Logan has allowed seven, four, and four earned runs in his last three starts respectively with an 8.44 ERA and 4.65 xFIP over those outings. He has an awful K/BB ratio of 6.75/4.50 per nine innings in the three starts, with the uptick in walks especially concerning considering his season mark of 2.33/9.
The Pick
Besides, if Stripling continues to pitch as bad as he has all year, then Webb may not need to allow much to clear this Over even if he suddenly returns to form. Therefore, we are betting on the Over in the Bay Area Series on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Giants 6 – Athletics 5
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-125) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
