A weekend series between one of the best teams in the AL and one of the worst continues on Saturday’s baseball betting card as the Houston Astros take on the Minnesota Twins.
Saturday, June 12th, 2021 – 7:15 PM ET at Target Field
Houston arrived in Minneapolis a game behind Oakland in the AL West, pretty much just as MLB future odds were drawn up with the Astros and A’s picked to slug it out for the division title. It is a mild shock seeing Minnesota at the bottom of the AL Central after the Twins were expected to be in the thick of the division race.
Saturday’s initial mound duel finds Luis Garcia (5-3, 2.75) going for Houston and Minnesota sending out Jose Berrios (6-2, 3.58). BetOnline was among the first to offer wager opportunities for the game, installing the Twins as -115 chalk with a 10-run total taxed to the ‘under.’
For the second consecutive week, Houston came up a game short of sweeping the Red Sox. The Astros posted decisive 7-1 and 8-3 wins in the first two games in Boston this week before falling 12-8 in Thursday’s series finale. Astros hitters continue to be the driving force behind a strong ‘over’ tendency (37-23-2 O/U/P), with Jose Altuve homering in three of his previous four games entering Friday’s matchup.
On the mound last Sunday in Buffalo, Garcia came away with his third consecutive quality start and fifth-straight win in a 6-3 decision over the Blue Jays. The Venezuelan recorded a season-high with eight strikeouts, and it marked the third assignment in a row that he went at least six innings while allowing only one run. It only required Garcia to burn through 79 pitches to get through six innings after reaching 100+ tosses in his previous two outings.
Garcia will be taking on the Twins for the first time in his career, with a couple of at-bats by Andrelton Simmons the only experience any Minnesota batter has against him. He owns a 3.65 ERA in five road starts this season, and baseball bettors who have been following him during the fifth-game win streak are up about 5.5 units.
It’s Minnesota pitchers who are behind the Twins being excellent ‘over’ bets this season, 40-19-3 O/U/P before play on Friday. Opponents are scoring 5.27 RPG against the Twins, the highest
mark in the AL, and third-worst in the majors behind Cincinnati (5.32) and Arizona (5.30). Minnesota could at least get some offensive help this weekend in the form of Byron Buxton’s return from the injured list. Buxton has been MIA since early-May with a hip injury, and looked fine this week on a rehab assignment with nearby Triple-A St. Paul.
Minnesota has also won the last five times Berrios climbed the hill, though he was only in on three of those decisions. One of those dubyas on the 24-year-old’s ledger came last Saturday in Kansas City, and he needed every bit of offense he got along with three shutdown innings from his relief corps. In a contest that closed as a pick ‘em on the MLB betting odds at several outlets, Berrios went six and allowed four runs in the 5-4 final.
Berrios pitched well against the Astros in Game 2 of last year’s AL Wild Card Series, but wound up with a no-decision in a 3-1 Twins loss that marked their 18th consecutive postseason defeat. All told on betting sites, he is 2-3 with a 5.53 ERA in six career starts vs. Houston.
Hard to believe that it was almost exactly 24 years ago when the Twins and Astros met for the first time, though that 1997 series was of the interleague variety. This weekend marks their first regular season encounter since early in the 2019 season, Houston with a 37-31 overall edge and 26-20 lead as AL rivals, those records reflecting the 2020 AL Wild Card round. Totals split 2-2 O/U in the 2019 series at target Field, both of last year’s playoff tilts staying ‘under.’
The matchup will be part of regional coverage on the big FOX, and the weatherman promises a nice evening in Minneapolis. Look for the mid-80s when the game begins, a 7-9 mph NW breeze (out to right) blowing under clear skies.
With the exception of an April start by Garcia in Denver, this is the highest a total has been in his outings, and Berrios only has one 10-run total on his card so far. That has top sportsbooks thinking ‘under,’ but I’m liking the Astros as small road pups even better.
MLB Pick: Astros +105 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.