Astros vs. Red Sox ALCS Game 3 Odds, Preview and Prediction (Archive)
The American League Championship Series moves to Boston for the next three games, starting with game three on Monday night.
The Red Sox erupted for two grand slams in the first two innings of game two to take home-field advantage from the Astros and will be looking to wrap things up before the series can go back to Texas. Let’s see the MLB odds.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, October 18, 2021 – 8:08 PM EDT at Fenway Park
The American League Championship Series moves to Boston for the next three games, starting with game three on Monday night. The Red Sox erupted for two grand slams in the first two innings of game two and put up nine runs against the Astros to even the series and take home-field advantage.
Boston became the first team in history with a pair of grand slams in a postseason game in recording the early game two knockouts. Boston will be looking to wrap things up before the series can go back to Houston, while the Astros want to take back the home field with at least one win in Boston.
Both teams are hopeful that they’ll accomplish their tasks. Boston has won six straight postseason home games. The last four times the Astros have been victimized for five runs or more in a playoff game, Houston has bounced back to win its next game.
Pitching Scramble
The Astros left their top starting pitcher off the ALCS roster due to injury. Lance McCullers Jr. left his start in the Divisional Series with forearm soreness and reportedly got bad news from the MRI that followed. McCullers would have gotten the ball for the game three start, leaving Houston scrambling to make up for his absence.
Houston will instead send Jose Urquidy to the mound for Monday’s start. Urquidy was 8-3 this season with a 3.62 ERA, but with the shortened postseason starting rotation, he’s been the odd man out up until this point. Urquidy last pitched on Oct. 3, against Oakland.
He was scheduled to start a game against the White Sox in the last round, but a rainout allowed Houston to skip him and keep the other starters pitching on normal rest. Urquidy is a much better pitcher than his forgotten man status in the postseason would imply. He won eight of his last nine decisions and allowed less than a baserunner an inning. He recorded 90 strikeouts this year against just 19 walks.
The Astros, who scored five runs in the game two loss, should be able to provide run support for Urquidy. Houston will be facing a left-handed starter, and the Astros have had the top offense in baseball against southpaws this season. The core of Houston’s lineup, including Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, and even lefthanded hitter Yordan Alvarez have all hit better against lefties this year.
Home Sweet Home
The Red Sox won the Wild Card game at home, then wrapped up the Divisional Series win over the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park as well. The team’s goal heading to Houston for the first two games of the ALCS was simple: Get back to Boston.
“We came here, we were, like, ‘We’ve got to split. That’s all we have to do,’ ” said J.D. Martinez, one of Boston’s two grand-slam hitters in game two. “So, to get the split here and to go back home with our fans, who have been unreal the entire postseason, it will be fun. It’s exactly what we wanted.”
Now the Red Sox will try to keep the home winning going with Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound. The southpaw was 13-8, 4.74 this season, and is 0-1 in two postseason starts. He’ll be challenged by a Houston lineup that feasts on lefties and is among the best in the majors at making contact. Boston’s bullpen has been solid all season, but the Red Sox relievers have blown leads in three of the last four games.
The Pick
Even with their second-choice starter on the mound, the Astros have the more favorable pitching matchup for this pivotal game. For your MLB picks, look for the Houston lineup to give Rodriguez a hard time and for the Astros to get into the Boston bullpen and take back the home-field advantage.
MLB Pick: Astros (+100) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.