Under 9.5 Runs -110
Angels vs. Yankees Free MLB Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 – 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Probable Pitchers
● Angels: Shohei Ohtani (3-1, 2.58 ERA)
● Yankees: Domingo German (4-5, 4.32 ERA)
Stakes of the Matchup
Going into the season, the New York Yankees were a heavy favorite to win the AL East, but currently they are longshots to win the division. On Wednesday night, the Yankees host a Los Angeles Angels team that is without their best player OF Mike Trout. Despite Trout’s absence, the Angels have played well recently and almost have a .500 record. With that in mind you should look for your MLB odds at BMR.
Currently the Yankees have a 40-38 record and are 7.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East division standings. For New York to make moves in the divisional standings they need to close out the next couple of weeks well, and then go on a run after the all-star break. Despite their record, the Yankees have arguably the best roster in their division.
The opposing LA Angels will have a tough time breaking through the logjam at the top of the AL West divisional standings with the Houston Astros in first place, and the Oakland Athletics in second place. Currently, the Angels have a -30 run differential meaning they should have a 36-42 record instead of their 38-40 record. However, their recent run of success with SP/DH Shohei Ohtani makes them either a competitive team or a spoiler late in the season if they are out of the playoff hunt.
Both LA and New York have strong lineups as well. The Angels lineup averages 4.83 runs per game which is the 8th best in MLB. The Yankees may currently average only 3.97 runs per game, but their position players have underperformed this season. If OF Aaron Judge, DH Giancarlo Stanton, and others start producing, then the Yankees are likely to score more runs.
Pitching Matchup
For Wednesday night’s game, both teams are relying on strong starting pitchers. Los Angeles is relying on breakout star Shohei Ohtani who not only has been their best hitter but has also been the ace of their starting rotation. Opposing Ohtani is Domingo German for the Yankees who has put together a strong season after missing the 2020 campaign.
This season as a pitcher, Ohtani has an 3-1 record with a 2.58 ERA, and a 3.33 xFIP. With a 1.3 WAR as a pitcher, Ohtani is not just a hitter who pitches, but a slugger who is also an Ace. Additionally, Ohtani is averaging 12.44 strikeouts per nine innings and more than 5 1/3 innings per start. Recently, Ohtani has been pitching for about six innings per start. Against a struggling Yankees lineup, Ohtani is likely to have a big night on the mound.
Opposing Ohtani is Domingo German who has been quietly decent for the Bronx Bombers. In his last season in 2019, German had a 18-4 record with a 4.03 ERA, and a 4.22 xFIP. This season, German may have a 4-5 record, but he also has a 4.32 ERA, and a 4.33 xFIP. Against a strong Angels lineup, German may have a tougher time than usual on Wednesday night, but just by being on the mound the Yankees are better positioned to win at home.
Prediction
Both teams have strong lineups, but the run total is unlikely to go over. Combined both teams average 8.8 runs per game which is almost a run less than the total. When you factor in that there will be less scoring than usual because of the pitching matchup, it is hard to imagine a game between both teams where ten or more runs are scored.
Even with Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon for the Angels, and OF Aaron Judge and C Gary Sanchez for the Yankees, the total is more likely to go under than to it is to go over.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 Runs -110 Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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