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Angels vs. Royals MLB Best Bet: Lorenzen, Cueto Means Lots of Runs
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LT Profits
- August 21, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a full card of Major League Baseball betting matchups in store for Wednesday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold the best value on the slate.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a total in Kansas City on Wednesday with the Angels visiting the Royals.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, August 21, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
Deceptive ERA
We are not high on the prospects of either Michael Lorenzen of the Royals or Johnny Cueto of the Angels. Therefore, we are backing the Over in Kansas City.
Michael Lorenzen enters this contest at 6-6 with a 3.68 ERA. However, that good ERA loses its shine when compared to his 5.01 xFIP that is the third worst in baseball for pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. The ERA is greatly aided by the Luck stats, as Lorenzen’s 81.6% strand rate is very high for a non-strikeout pitcher while he also has a relatively low BABIP allowed of .242.
That Luck has helped mask Michael’s terrible K/BB ratio of 6.60/4.22 per nine innings. The low K-rate is validated by only a 9.0% swinging strike rate. Furthermore, he has an above-average hard contact rate of 32.9%, so the ERA should rise once the Luck stats start normalizing.
Lorenzen was also hit hard the last time he faced the Halos on July 10th, allowing five earned runs on five hits plus four walks with just three strikeouts in five innings.
Guess Who’s Back
Johnny Cueto is making his return to the majors with the Angels calling up the now 38-year-old from the AAA level. It was believed that the former All-Star was done after last year when he went 1-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 5.20 xFIP in 13 appearances (10 starts) for the Miami Marlins. Instead, he signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers, who then released him before he signed another minor league deal with the Angels.
Sadly, we do not see much in his four AAA starts since the latest signing to suggest any return to glory. Sure, Johnny had a 3.09 ERA, but that means little in the minors when he also had a 5.23 xFIP and a low strikeout rate of 5.79/9. Perhaps worst of all, his velocity of 90.4 MPH was well down from his 92.2 MPH for the Marlins last season.
The Pick
We simply do not see Cueto having any success at his age here given how he looked in the minors. Combine that with Lorenzen’s overachieving ERA and bet the Over in this spot Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Angels 6 – Royals 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
